Posts Tagged ‘NFL’

2010 NFL Mock Draft

Sunday, February 14th, 2010

NFL Mock DraftI’m such a draft-nick it’s not even funny anymore. . .

The NFL Season is all wrapped up and I figured the best thing to do on my first Sunday without a live NFL game would be to hammer out a mock draft.

The Draft order is almost complete, with the exception of a few coin flips, and we’re about to fire up the NFL combine in Indianapolis as well. It’s actually the perfect time to do a mock and an even better time to talk about the best three days of the year. . . the NFL Draft!

I live for the draft, so you can guarantee that there will be plenty of more mocks to go around.

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1. St Louis Rams: Ndamukong Suh – DT – Nebraska

I’ll laugh the Rams right out of the building if they don’t select Suh. He’s a great player that has the ability to collapse a pocket and will command a double team on most plays. He compares favorably to Minnesota’s Kevin Williams and has great speed for his size.

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2. Detroit Lions: Gerald McCoy – DT – Oklahoma

Gerald McCoy remains a terrific pick for the Lions who need to add pieces to a defense that was a doormat last season. Some scouts have him rated higher than Suh because of his ability to fit into a 4-3 front and he could be an even better pass rusher than the above mentioned Nebraska product.

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3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Dez Bryant – WR – Oklahoma State

Sure, this is WAY too high for a guy with some character concerns, but this kid is ready to go right now. He’s big, he’s fast, and he knows how to make moves in the open field. He’s going to be a playmaker and that’s exactly what Tampa needs to surround young QB Josh Freeman with.

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4. Washington Redskins: Sam Bradford – QB – Oklahoma

If Bradford’s shoulder checks out ok, Washington will pull the trigger on what is the only franchise QB in this draft class. He’s got a nice release and excellent zip on his deep passes. Shanahan is a QB guru and he should prove to be a perfect mentor for the early stages of Bradford’s development.

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5. Kansas City Chiefs: Eric Berry – S – Tennessee

The Chiefs have needs all across the board but adding to their 30th ranked defense would certainly be a good start. Berry is a special player who should not only test through the roof, but he has all the intangibles to be a terrific player at the next level who should turn into a leader in the locker room.

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6. Seattle Seahawks: Russell Okung – OT – Oklahoma State

In a shocker, the Seahags have their pick of the top shelf in this year’s offensive tackle class and they actually make the right choice. Okung isn’t an absolute mauler but he’s also a really good athlete for his size and should transition into a great tackle at the pro level.

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7. Cleveland Browns: Derrick Morgan – DE – Georgia Tech

The Browns really need a pass rushing presence on defense and Morgan could be their man. Morgan would give their front seven a nice upgrade and provide them with another option to get to the quarterback. Could be the best pass rusher in this class.

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8. Oakland Raiders: Jason Pierre-Paul – DE – South Florida

Only Al Davis and his shiny stop watch know who the Raiders will be selecting but while Oakland’s needs would appear to be offensive line, that doesn’t mean they’ll adhere to anything logical. I’m thinking they go best athlete remaining on the board and Al’s old over-head projector probably has Jason Pierre-Paul’s name on it.

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9. Buffalo Bills: Bruce Campbell – OT – Maryland

The Bills had a revolving door at offensive tackle but they have a very young interior with 2nd year players Eric Wood and Andy Levitre. They also love the potential of Demetrius Bell but they need another prototype tackle to pair with him. Campbell is explosive and has excellent size to control the point of attack.

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10t. Denver Broncos: Rolando McClain – LB – Alabama

McClain is a great athlete with tremendous closing speed for his size and very long arms. Denver has a good LB corps but Andre Davis is long in the tooth and this would give them a nice influx of youth with Williams, Dumervil, and 2nd year pro Robert Ayers wreaking havoc for years to come in that 3-4.

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10t. Jacksonville Jaguars: Joe Haden – CB – Florida

Jacksonville has more than a few needs but their secondary was downright terrible towards the end of the season. They not only need safety help but they could use the corner of the future to pair up with Derek Cox. The Jags will be lucky to see Haden slip this far in the draft.

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12. Miami Dolphins: Sergio Kindle – DE – Texas

The Dolphins need to fill a number of holes along the front 7 of that 3-4 defense. One area they could certainly use some depth and youth in would be Outside Linebacker. With Joey Porter’s release and Jason Taylor getting long in the tooth, Kindle would be a perfect fit for the Dolphins.

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13. San Francisco 49ers: Anthony Davis – OT – Rutgers

The 49ers were respectable last year but they want to improve on offense and find an answer on the other side of Joe Staley at the tackle position. They like running the ball and they want to be more physical at the point of attack, which should play right into Davis’ skill set as a big mauler in the run game. Should be a good fit on the right side.

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14. Seattle Seahawks: CJ Spiller – RB – Clemson

This Seattle franchise needs a shot in the arm and they need playmakers in a running attack that averaged less than 100 yards per game last season. Spiller would bring a lot of explosiveness to that offense and he can also contribute on special teams with his dynamic kick return ability.

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15. New York Giants: Donovan Warren – CB – Michigan

This is a little high for Warrne but he would address a huge need for a Giants secondary that got abused in games last season. Warren is a terrific tackler and has the potential to be a good cover corner at the next level. The league features a lot of big time passing teams and New York needs more youth at the position.

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16t. Tennessee Titans: Everson Griffen – DE – Southern California

I love this guy’s pass rushing ability. He could be one of the better pure defensive ends from this class and the Titans need to get stronger along the front four. Griffen uses his hands well and can shed would-be blockers very quickly. He’s a much needed addition, considering the Titans’ lack of a pass rush last season.

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16t. San Francisco 49ers: Dan Williams – DT – Tennessee

The 49ers got a really great season from Aubrayo Franklin but he can’t play every single down and they need to build depth at a position that is crucial to their 3-4 defense. Williams is a prototype nose with the terrific size and tremendous strength he showed off at the Senior Bowl.

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18. Pittsburgh Steelers: Brian Bulaga – OT – Iowa

Maybe this is too good a fit but you know what you’re getting with a Hawkeye and that’s very physical run blocking technique. Bulaga should work out well at right tackle to start but will eventually be able to hold his own on the left side in the future.

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19(t). Atlanta Falcons: Earl Thomas – S – Texas

While most scouts and teams will be looking at Thomas playing free safety for their team, the Falcons could try him at corner. He’s got the wheels to play outside and has proven to be very durable, despite being a fierce hitter. Could eventually be the future center fielder of almost any NFL franchise.

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19(t). Houston Texans: Taylor Mays – S – Southern California

The Texans had a lot of success with the last USC Trojan they selected and they might be lured in to drafting Mays too early. He’s a physical specimen and a vicious hitter but he’s shown lapses in coverage multiple times. His physical upside is still too great to ignore though.

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21. Cincinnati Bengals: Brian Price – DT – UCLA

The Bengals need to be more consistent against the run and free up their talented corps of linebackers. Price would fit in really well with what the Bengals do and his high motor/extra effort play is exactly what coordinator Mike Zimmer wants on his defense.

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22. New England Patriots: Jermaine Greshem – TE – Oklahoma

I know that it’s a bit of a shock but I am hearing that the Patriots are sending Ben Watson his walking papers, so they’re going to need another big target over the middle of the field with Welker likely missing the early part of the season rehabbing from knee surgery. The Pats will continue to surround Brady with talent.

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23. Green Bay Packers: Charles Brown – OT – Southern California

Maybe these are more of my high hopes for the Packers but Brown’s athleticism, being a former TE, would be a great fit for Green Bay’s zone blocking scheme and their need at tackle is strong. They’ve got some really good interior linemen, so they can only improve their chances on offense if they give Aaron Rodgers even more time to throw the ball.

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24. Philadelphia Eagles: Carlos Dunlap – DE – Florida

Philly still wants a blue-chip defensive end to pair with Trent Cole and Dunlap is a heck of an athlete that will fall due to character concerns. Philadelphia management loves to collect defensive linemen like they’re comic books, so don’t be surprised to see the Eagles pass on linebacker yet again.

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25. Baltimore Ravens: Arrelious Benn – WR – Illinois

I know the stats and production in college just aren’t there but we’re talking about a very talented player, who’s got a lot to offer an NFL franchise. While he’s not ready to hit the ground running just yet, he’ll be a terrific fit for a team that needs to surround their QB of the future w/ talent.

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26. Arizona Cardinals: Terrence Cody – DT – Alabama

It’s one of two things for the Cards, upgrade their defensive front or add to their offensive line. They have one of the last defensive tackles on the board with the potential to be a dominant nose tackle in a 3-4 front. His weight issues may drop him off most team’s draft boards but he’s a great fit here if his weight is under control.

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27. Dallas Cowboys: Trent Williams – OT – Oklahoma

I’m obviously not as big a fan of Williams as some others are but he does play very physical and excels at run blocking, which is what the Cowboys like to do. They need an eventual replacement for Flozell Adams and Williams could be a left tackle but his pass blocking will need some work.

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28. San Diego Chargers: Mike Iupati – OG – Idaho

This guy is one of the better guard prospects to enter the draft in some time. He’s a nasty player who is very explosive off of the line and can blow up the man in front of him. He would be a welcomed addition in San Diego, a team that features big physical linemen.

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29. New York Jets: Brandon Graham – LB – Michigan

Graham may not be around for the Jets but they’ve got to get younger on their front seven and Rex Ryan definitely wants some more weapons for his defense. Gholston has been a total bust and Graham may give them the impact pass rusher they thought they were getting back when they took Gholston with the sixth overall pick two years ago.

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30. Minnesota Vikings: Jonathan Dwyer – RB – Georgia Tech

The Vikings aren’t likely to retain the services of backup running back Chester Taylor and Adrian Peterson’s upright running style, combined with his penchant for doling out punishment at the end of his runs, leads me to believe that the Vikings will target a running back early. Dwyer could learn behind Peterson and he would also have the ability to spell him.

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31. Indianapolis Colts: Jared Odrick – DT – Penn State

The Colts have been looking to get bigger and quicker up front on defense ever since defensive coordinator Larry Coyer got in town. Fili Moala didn’t pan out as expected and Bill Polian wants a more physical presence to hold the point against the run and give them a pass rushing presence. Odrick would be a perfect fit as an under tackle in the Colts’ cover-2.

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32. New Orleans Saints: Brandon Ghee – CB – Wake Forest

This kid is rising up a lot of draft boards and the Saints might have visions of having Ghee paired up with Porter at corner, while Jenkins(last year’s first rounder) and Roman Harper complete their secondary at the safety spots. Ghee is a speedy corner who has the potential to make an impact right away in their secondary and he would make a lot of sense, being that pro bowl safety Darren Sharper has hinted at retirement.

Thanks a ton for reading and please bang out some feedback or comments below. You can also e-mail me questions, comments, and even complaints to joe@rookiedraft.com

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Week 13: Diamonds in the Rough

Saturday, December 5th, 2009

By: David Ortega
NFLDraftbible.com

There is no rest for the wicked or fantasy owners for that matter. With many custom leagues gearing up for the fantasy playoffs, there will be a many critical matchups this week and every point will count. If you don’t quite have what it takes this week and are looking for some possibilities here are few to consider…

The Week’s Gems….

In St.Louis….
The Rams offense has not had much to look forward to each week other than their amazing running back, but this week there may be some extra smile in the huddle come Sunday. With a more agile and mobile quarterback in Kyle Boller under center the Rams passing offense may have a chance this week to show some life. With the Bears 14th ranked pass defense having allowed 21 touchdowns this and better than 64 percent pass completion this season, the Rams receiver Donnie Avery could be in line to make some plays on Sunday. There’s no question the defense will be keyed to stop the run, allowing Avery to see some favorable coverage. Avery has big game potential and looks primed to improve his five touchdowns total for the season.

In Houston….
Only a few weeks ago with the demotion of running back Steve Slaton it seemed the fantasy world was riding the Ryan Moats bandwagon and with good reason, but funny how quickly things change. The recent word on Slaton’s status for Sunday, he’s not expected to play; the door does not open for Moats, but rather running back Chris Brown. Facing the 26th ranked pass defense the Texans should have little trouble getting the ball into the red-zone. Brown has the bruising running-style and strength to put the ball in the end-zone; last week he powered his way to 56 yards on 11 carries with a score. Expect to see the Texans to move the ball with ease and Brown to pick-up an easy score or two.

In Philadelphia…
In recent weeks the Eagles have encountered a slew of injuries on offense and with DeSean Jackson already ruled out, the door of opportunities opens again. A few weeks ago I mentioned keep your eye on Eagles receiver Jason Avant. When Jackson went down last week Avant filled in nicely catching five passes for 94 yards. Avant was targeted six times last Sunday and has seen 20 balls in his direction over the past three weeks. In that span the Eagles wideout has caught 17 passes for over 270-yards and due to start this week against the Falcons he could be ready for another big Sunday.


Worth Noting for this week….

With most fantasy leagues preparing for the final weekend of their regular fantasy season, owners are having to make some tough decisions. One decision some owners will face is what to do about all of these concussions? One such affected player that will present a huge dilemna is quarterback Kurt Warner. Last week fantasy owners were let down when the 38 year old veteran had to sit because of lingering concussion symptoms. Warner has practiced , but he will be questionable for Sunday night’s matchup with the Vikings. The tough choice here is risking a start with a player who could sit or could even be knocked out early. The Vikings do a good job getting to the quarterback, considering his injury you have to consider Warner to be in a fragile state; how many hits can he take. If this week is a critical matchup fantasy owners may be wise to not take a chance with such a risky play.

Check here every week for more “Diamonds in the Rough”!

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Psychocat’s Crystal Litterbox Week 8 (Game Predictions)

Saturday, October 31st, 2009

Written by Rich Burkhardt
http://fantasyfootballwhiz.com

A fantastic week for the Litterbox, sweeping all 3 games to run the overall record to 15-7. Some real high profile games this week, including Brett Favre’s return to Lambeau Field. Let’s jump right into the fray.

Broncos (6-0) at Ravens (3-3): The Ravens have been a Dr Jekyll and Mr. Hyde team this season. They started out with 3 wins in a row over relatively weak competition in the Chiefs, Chargers and Browns.  The followed that with 3 straight losses to the Patriots, Bengals, and Vikings. With both the Bengals and Steelers sitting at 5-2 and a brutal schedule over the next six weeks that contains only one losing team, they need a win in the worst way if they are going to contend in the tough AFC North.

Ravens’ keys: First and foremost, they need to find the defense they had in years past, if it’s still there. Usually near the top of the league in defense, they’re a mediocre 19th so far, allowing 21.7 ppg.  They’re still staunch against the run, ranking 7th with 91.2 ypg and 3 TDs allowed.  But their pass defense has been ugly, allowing 241.5 ypg and 9 TDs vs 7 picks. They’re also not getting much pressure on the QB, with only 14 sacks recorded.

On the positive side, there’s RB Ray Rice (73-441-3), who has taken over as the lead back. Rice is Mr. Everything for the Ravens; he leads the team in catches with 33 and is second in receiving yardage with 325 and has a TD. RB Willis McGahee (45-202-5) isn’t getting a lot of carries but is a serious red zone threat; he also has 2 receiving TDs.

QB Joe Flacco (1,674-11-5) has turned into one of the best young guns in the league. His offensive line also does a good job of protecting him; Flacco has been dumped only 10 times.

The rest of the receiving corps is nothing to write home about. WRs Derrick Mason (26-381-3) and Mark Clayton (20-270-2) are adequate at best. TE Todd Heap (24-252-2) is an injury waiting to happen.

Broncos’ keys: Shutting down Ray Rice would go a long way toward helping them win. The Broncos have one of the best run defenses, ranked 3rd with just 79.7 ypg and 2 TDs allowed. Their pass defense is no slouch either, ranked 8th with 182.8 ypg and 3 TDs vs 6 picks.

They’re also tied for second in the league with 21 sacks. A good portion of those comes from LB Elvis Dumervil, who has dumped the opposing QB 10 times already. LBs DJ Williams and Andra Davis give the Broncos a solid corps there, and 5 different Broncos each have a pick.

The Broncos will also need to exploit the Ravens’ weak pass defense, and they have the tools to do it.  QB Kyle Orton (1,465-9-1) is off to a great start. WR Brandon Marshall (29-332-4) has come on strong recently after a slow start; apparently he’s decided to concentrate more on football and less on acting like a 3-year old. WR Eddie Royal (18-148-1) needs to step up his game. TE Tony Scheffler (16-217-2) and WR Brandon Stokley (9-181-2) and Jabbar Gaffney (18-242-0) are other options. The running game now belongs to rookie Knowshon Moreno (99-381-1), with Correll Buckhalter (47-313-1) providing some extra punch.

Prediction: This game could well be the one that drops the Ravens out of playoff contention. They might be able to beat a team that is weak against either the pass or the run, but the Broncos are neither. Orton should be able to exploit the ravens pass defense.

Broncos 31 – Ravens 20

49ers (3-3) at Colts (6-0): The 49ers find themselves in a similar situation to the Ravens. They started out 3-1 by beating the Cardinals, Seahawks and Rams in the first 4 weeks and losing a close one to the Vikings. But they’ve lost their last two games, a 45-10 thrashing by the Falcons and a 24-21 squeaker to the Texans. As a result they now find themselves a game back of the Cardinals and facing an undefeated Colts team while the Cardinals get to take on the underachieving Panthers.

49ers’ keys: The 49ers decided halfway through last week’s game that they had seen enough from QB Shaun Hill (943-5-2). So they turned back to former #1 draft pick Alex Smith, and he responded by throwing 3 TD passes to TE Vernon Davis (29-355-6). Smith should be under center again this week, and that can only help the 49ers passing game.

RB Frank Gore (52-273-3) will be playing his second game back after being injured in week 3. Having Gore back should help against a Colts run defense that is in the bottom half of the league against the run, allowing 111.8 ypg and 4 TDs. They’ll need to run early and often; the Colts pass defense is ranked 6th with 179.8 ypg and 2 TDs vs 6 picks.

The biggest problem for the 49ers is that they really don’t have much in the way of receivers after Davis. WRs Josh Morgan (17-254-1) and Issac Bruce (15-190-0) really don’t scare anyone.

Colts’ keys: Hmmmm…where should we start? Oh yeah: Peyton Manning. He’s on the way to another stellar season  (1,880- 15-4).  He’s obviously getting plenty of time to throw behind that Colts’ o-line; he’s been dumped just twice for 15 yards in losses.

Manning, of course, has no problems with having good receivers. Start with WR Reggie Wayne (39-542-5). Then toss in TE Dallas Clark (38-485-3). When #2 WR Tony Gonzalez went down early on, there was concern that the Colts might suffer there. Not to worry, rookie WR Austin Collie (24-264-4) and second-year WR Pierre Garcon (14-240-2) have filled in admirably.

The ground game almost seems to be an afterthought for the Colts. RBs Joseph Addai (82-274-4) and rookie Donald Brown (45-212-2) run just enough to keep the opposing defenses honest.

Prediction: The Colts have way too many weapons for the 49ers to hang with them for very long. Manning should be able to exploit their pass defense all day long. Look for a blowout here.

Colts 38 – 49ers 17

Vikings (6-1) at Packers (4-2): Its rematch time for these two teams; the Vikings won the earlier game on their home turf 30-23 as Brett Favre had a stellar game against his former team. The Vikings are going to be mad going into this one, having lost their first game of the year last week to the Steelers. The Packers are looking for revenge for the first loss and to half a game back of the Vikings with a win.

Packers’ keys: First of all, the o-line has to do a far better job of protecting QB Aaron Rodgers than they did in the first game, when he was sacked 8 times. Vikings defenders seemed to spend as much time in the Packers backfield as their own RBs, particularly monster DE Jared Allen, who had 4.5 sacks. This is an ongoing problem for the Packers; Rodgers has been dumped a league-high 25 times this year.

When Rodgers (1,702-11-2) gets the time to throw, he’s capable of creating havoc against opposing defenses. If they can keep him upright, that bodes well for the Packers. The Vikings are allowing 234.6ypg with 10 TDs against 6 picks and are expected to be without standout CB Antoine Winfield for a second straight week because of a foot injury.

Seemingly ageless WR Donald Driver (27-479-3) is having a great season, leading the team in all 3 categories. WR Greg Jennings (22-356-1) has big play potential, but has been underachieving so far. Rookie TE Jermichael Finley (17-260-1) is turning into a favorite Rodgers target. However, he hasn’t practiced all week because of a knee sprain suffered last week and is questionable for this week.

RB Ryan Grant (118-495-3) has been doing well, but he’ll face tough going this week. The Vikings are 10th in run defense with 95.4 ypg and 2 TDs allowed. If the Vikings can shut down Grant, there goes the Packers ground game. Rodgers is the 2nd leading rusher (24-136-1). The other 4 Packers RBs have combined for 23 carries and 77 yards, and only John Kuhn has a TD among them

Vikings’ keys: Slowing down RB Adrian Peterson (138-687-8) has to be a top priority or it’s going to be a long day for the Packers. But the Packers are fairly good against the run, ranking 12th overall with 97.5 ypg and 2 TDs allowed.  Those numbers are fairly similar to the Vikings, so they might have some success against Peterson.

Then of course there’s Favre (1,681-12-3), who’s having a good season so far. But his old team is ranked 4th against the pass, with 174 ypg and 9 TDs allowed vs 11 picks. The Packers secondary would like nothing better than to pick Favre off a couple of times and to take those picks to the house.

Favre spreads the ball around well; he has 6 targets with 18 or more catches, including RBs Chester Taylor and Peterson. Foremost among those is WR Sidney Rice (33-545-2). TE Visanthe Shinacoe (21-191-5) is a leading red zone target for Favre.

Prediction: On paper, the Vikings would seem to have the edge. But sometimes intangibles come into play, and this could well be one of those times. The Packers want to keep Favre from winning at Lambeau in the worst way, and I’m going to call the upset here.

Packers 34 – Vikings 27

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Darkhorses & Non-Starters Week 8

Saturday, October 31st, 2009

Written by Colin Pekruhn

http://fantasyfootballwhiz.com

It’s getting to be crunch time for a number of owners who are looking at needing each and every game from here on out to make their league’s playoffs. Problem is, the bye week blues are in full effect again this week and injuries are continuing to mount, meaning many of us need to find that gem who will go off whilst our studs lie dormant. So, if you have a Pittsburgh Steeler, Cincinnati Bengal, New England Patriot, Tampa Bay Buccaneer, Kansas City Chief, or Washington Redskin player on bye, listen up!

Quarterbacks

Dark Horses

David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars – Garrard destroys bad secondaries, and he gets his second crack at the worst of the bunch this week. He torched the Titans for 323 yards and 3 touchdowns in Week 4 (his best performance of the season), and this unit has not improved one bit since then. Ignore the fact he’s on the road this time around: he’s destined for at the very worst a solid game.

Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys – I’m going back to Romo as a Dark Horse for another week against the Seahawks’ 16th ranked pass defense. With the emergence of Miles Austin, Romo looks more like his good self than ever, which makes him a great play against average-to-poor pass defenses. He’s hot right now, and should continue to post solid numbers across the board.

Marc Bulger, St. Louis Rams – Here’s a true Dark Horse pick for you guys. He’s on the waiver wire or deep on the bench in just about every league, and if you need help this week, now is the time to dust him off. He faces the very bad Detroit Lions who rank 30th against the pass. Both teams have injuries and gapping holes on their offensive lines, but Bulger is enough of a player that he should be able to take advantage of his opposition’s weaknesses. Don’t expect monster numbers, but this is probably his one time to post a decent game statistically along with a possible “W” for his team.

Non-Starters

Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons – Ryan has been in a bit of a statistical slump, having thrown for under 200 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions in the past two games. Looking at things just on paper, the 14th ranked Saints pass defense is not a bad match-up, except for the fact they are a bunch of ball hawks who lead the league in interceptions (13) and rank fourth is passing scores allowed (5). Owners have to be cautious given Ryan’s performance against a much weaker Dallas secondary last week, so I if you have a better option you may want to consider benching Ryan until he shows some signs of fantasy life again.

Matt Hasselbeck, Seattle Seahawks – Where to begin with the poor Seahawks… This unit has been ravaged by injuries on both sides of the ball, especially on the offensive line. They simply cannot protect Matt Hasselbeck. He’s a good match-up against teams with poor pass rushers, having his best games against the Rams (t-22nd) and the Jaguars (32nd) who both rank at the bottom of the league in sacks. Dallas is pretty good at rushing the passer, ranking 16th (tied) in the league in sacks, so I do not foresee a great game for Hasselbeck.

Donovan McNabb, Philadelphia Eagles – McNabb, like Matt Ryan, has been underwhelming in his past two games when you look at his stat line. The common theme in those games? He faced two good secondaries in Oakland (12th) and Washington (3rd) who can rush the passer. The Giants are in the same vein of defensive units (ranked 2nd against the pass), albeit they have some issues at safety. This is a huge game in the battle for NFC East supremacy, and with Brian Westbrook out expect the Giants to focus on taking away what has worked for the Eagles: big plays in the passing game. DeSean Jackson and McNabb will be the focus of the defense, which does not bode well for McNabb’s stats this week.

Running Backs

Dark Horses

LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles – There is no way Brian Westbrook should be playing this week after suffering the worst possible grade of concussion on Monday. In fact, he should miss at least two games if doctors play this by the book, which means McCoy gets the nod. The New York Giants rank a mediocre 15th against the run, and all bets are they dare Philly to win the war on the ground with the rookie as opposed to with the veteran McNabb. I expect McCoy to use this opportunity to show teams who passed on him why he’s a first-round talent.

Ray Rice, Baltimore Ravens – Rice has shown up at his best in tough match-ups, and none may be as difficult outside of Pittsburgh as their tilt with the Denver Broncos at home this week. The Denver pass rush should force Joe Flacco to check it down to Rice in the passing game, and Rice is tough and quick enough on the ground to operate well against a quick Denver defense. I like Rice a lot where many will shy away because of the match-up – have faith.

Joseph Addai, Indianapolis Colts – With Donald Brown sidelined with a shoulder injury, Addai finally has some breathing room to operate. He should see around 20 carries like he did last week, against a decent 49ers defense should be more active in the passing game. He should be limited in rushing yardage with the 49ers sixth-ranked run defense keeping him in check, but he has a great chance to find the end zone at least once and go over 100 combined yards.

Non-Starters

Pierre Thomas, New Orleans Saints – We might as well put all three Saints runners in this category, because it is a real bayou quagmire. Thomas is losing goal line and second half carries big-time to Mike Bell, while Reggie Bush is stealing any looks in the passing game and the odd carry here and there. Atlanta is a nice match-up on paper, but Thomas is tough to start while Bell and Bush are both healthy and tearing into his carries.

Frank Gore, San Francisco 49ers – The Alex Smith Era, Redeux is under way in San Francisco, which appears to be a bit more high-flying than the Shaun Hill Era. Gore has been pretty disappointing, only posting one game (albeit a monster) of note this season. The Colts only rank 19th against the run, but with Bob Sanders back should improve in that department. Gore is someone I’d avoid this week if possible.

Thomas Jones, New York Jets – Jones scored twice against Miami in Week 5, but that was before Shonn Greene was on the scene. Greene is much better suited to goal line duties, which if you take away those opportunities from Jones, left him with a paltry 42 yards on 13 carries in that Week 5 match-up. Miami’s defense has been playing better of late, and they continue to be ranked high against the run. It’s hard to bench Jones, but owners should temper expectations.

Wide Receivers

Dark Horses

Austin Collie, Indianapolis Colts – I called his first big game a few weeks back, and I’m calling another big one for him this week. It looks like both Reggie Wayne and Anthony Gonzalez will be sitting this one out, which means Collie should be the starter this week. He’s shown some great ability, and the San Francisco 49ers are not exactly a great pass defending unit. This is a perfect week to dust the rookie off and insert him into your lineup.

Mohamed Massaquoi, Cleveland Browns – The Browns have been pretty awful, but Massaquoi has been a lone bright spot. He’s managed to make good on some opportunities, and the Browns might actually have a chance to get him the ball against a Chicago Bears defense that is allowing a lot of points through the air (11 touchdowns). With nothing to lose, I think Mangini lets Derek Anderson launch it deep to Massaquoi more than a couple times in this one.

Greg Jennings, Green Bay Packers – Never thought I’d have to consider him a Dark Horse, but he is at that right now. If he’s going to ever get back on track, this is probably one of the best chances he’ll have. The Vikings will be without Antoine Winfield again, and the Packers will be without Jermichael Finley. I think both of these facts point to a re-emergence of Jennings in this epic battle at Lambeau Field.

Non-Starters

DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia Eagles – I love the way he’s been playing, and you cannot bench him barring better options, but I think he gets limited this week. He’s pretty much the only weapon that has been working for the Eagles of late, and the solid Giants secondary will take away opportunities for big plays from him. I suspect Jeremy Maclin will be the one seeing chances deep down the field in this key NFC East showdown.

Justin Gage, Tennessee Titans – The Titans are in transition back into the Vince Young Era, Part Deux, which could be a very good or very bad thing. Fact of the matter is, we just do not know yet, and thus it is hard to recommend starting anyone on the Titans roster outside of Chris Johnson. Young has not worked a whole lot with Gage in recent memory, so he may chemistry is likely a small issue to also consider. Stay away for the time being.

Johnny Knox, Chicago Bears – For all the love this kid is getting in fantasy circles, he has not done squat since Week 2. He only has 13 catches for 114 yards and a touchdown in the past four weeks, which is less than half his output in Weeks 1 and 2 combined. Jay Cutler and Devin Hester seem to be more on the same page than they were when Knox was getting a lot of love, and Hester is the guy getting the looks downfield. The Browns are a tasty matchup, but Knox hasn’t done enough to warrant the faith some owners are putting in him. Hester, Olsen, and Forte should be leading the charge this week.

Tight Ends

Dark Horses

Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers – I am surprised that I can still put this guy on this list, but there are still plenty of doubters out there. Alex Smith loves this guy, and even before the quarterback change Davis was getting plenty of targets. The Colts defense is one of the stingiest against the pass (rank 7th overall, 1st in passing touchdowns allowed), and they have not allowed opposing tight ends to do a whole lot. My issue is they have really only faced one quality tight end, John Carlson, and he’s on a struggling offense. Davis is a physical freak who is finally putting it all together, and he has the trust of his team – this is a situation where you play a guy despite what you see on paper.

Marcedes Lewis, Jacksonville Jaguars – Lewis has been forgotten for good reason of late – he’s turned in two consecutive stinkers before the Week 7 bye. But the Jaguars seem revitalized, at least in spirit, coming off the bye, and they get to tee-off against the poor Titans. And, lest we forget, Lewis’ last great game was against this very unit (4-76-1) in Week 4. I like his chances to post another good game against them.

Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys – Here’s a guy I never thought I’d have to consider a Dark Horse, but he’s disappointed a ton of owners who took him early in drafts. He saw a lot more targets in Week 6 and 7 than he had previously, though his numbers were pretty average all in all. The Baltimore Ravens defense has allowed some decent to good games against the tight end, most notably Visanthe Shiancoe’s two touchdown Week 6. The Ravens secondary is going to have their hands full and will probably focus double coverages on the red hot Miles Austin, which should leave Witten one-on-one with linebackers all day long. I think he also finds the end zone at least once this week.

Non-Starters

John Carlson, Seattle Seahawks – It’s not his fault, but Carlson has been a real snooze since the early weeks of the season. He’s had to stay in and block a whole lot more with the offensive line in shambles, which has limited his chances to be a deep threat. He’ll be doing a lot more chipping and blocking against the Dallas Cowboys this week, so don’t expect a huge game from him. At least he gets the Detroit Lions in Week 9.

Dustin Keller, New York Jets – Poor Keller is really hurting alongside his quarterback, and it won’t get much better against the Miami Dolphins. They shut him out (literally) in their Week 5 match-up, and even with some injuries in the secondary I do not see him improving a whole lot. He shouldn’t be shut down again, but he’s nearly un-startable this week despite the great match-up, given the Dolphins have surrender monster games to Tony Gonzalez, Dallas Clark, and Jeremy Shockey.

Donald Lee, Green Bay Packers – Everyone is picking him as their favorite tight end sleeper this week with Jermichael Finley sidelined, but I don’t buy into the hype. Lee is an average talent who does not possess the same freakish receiving ability and physical tools as Finley. I see Lee getting a couple more looks by default, but I think the wide receivers benefit most from Finley’s absence. I think Lee continues to post average numbers at best, which means he might approach 50 yards receiving.

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Week 6: Ones to Watch

Monday, October 12th, 2009

By Ralph Mancini
NFLDraftBible.com

Here are some players to keep an eye on as they might emerge as fantasy factors in the near future.

BENJARVUS GREEN-ELLIS (NE-RB): The Mississippi man is currently buried on the depth chart, but it might not be long before he emerges as a timeshare option alongside Sammy Morris and Kevin Faulk. The disappointing Laurence Maroney seems to be the only obstacle standing in his way. Ellis is a tough runner that bounces off tacklers and was very effective in limited action last season by scoring five times in six games during one stretch. If Maroney doesn’t finally begin showing signs of progress, you can bet your bottom dollar that the second-year man will begin seeing some significant playing time.

ARIAN FOSTER (HOU-RB): While the Texans realize that Steve Slaton isn’t a good option to serve as their goal-line back, they seem to think that Chris Brown is the answer to their problems down near the end zone and in short-yardage situations. Brown, however, has failed to produce so far by failing to punch it in on multiple occasions and even fumbling the ball. While the Colorado product is certainly big enough to carry out the task at 6’3” 235-pounds, he’s always been an upright back that often presents defenses with a big target to feast on. Foster, on the other, is a free agent rookie that currently resides on the practice squad. The 6’1” 232-pound thumper has good body lean, leg drive and the ability to twist and turn for more yardage after contact, which may make him a better option as the short-yardage/goal-line grinder Houston seeks.

JARED COOK (TEN-TE): With Bo Scaife in his walk year and the bloated Alge Crumpler on his last legs, Cook is poised to soon become the number one tight end in Music City. The former Gamecock began training camp in grand fashion and even evoked comparisons to Shannon Sharpe. The rookie’s fast start was derailed, however, by an ankle injury that set him back a few weeks. The freakishly athletic Cook is slowly being reintegrated into the weekly game plan and even caught three passes for 27 yards versus Indianapolis. Cook’s burst off the line, overall quickness, and ability to throttle down and create separation are special qualities that the Titans are determined to capitalize on in the very near future.

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Week 5: Diamonds in the Rough

Friday, October 9th, 2009

By David Ortega
NFLDraftBible.com

With our continued watch from week to week, the search continues for those select gems that look primed and ready to breakout at a moments notice. With four weeks now history, we’ve had a good look at plenty of possibilities, but only a handful this week show the real promise some owners may have to bank on to keep their season heading in the right direction.

Whether you are riding high on a four week winning streak or just hoping to stop the bleeding you need to know which players will offer your team the best chances at securing a win in week five. With notable offenses like the Saints and Packers on bye this week, many owners are going to be searching long and hard for some temporary relief;


This week’s gems:

In Green Bay

No longer in the rough, this diamond appears ready to shine now. Monday night was just a glimpse of what some believe the Packer’s tight end Jermichael Finley can do. Now that his coming out party has passed, count on seeing more of this kid in weeks ahead. At 6’6” and athletic, there’s no question Rodgers will be looking his way more and count on this 2nd year tight end to see plenty of looks in the Redzone.

In Cleveland

With the Browns finally showing up to play in week four one of the brighter spots on Sunday was the play of running back Jerome Harrison. Now Harrison may not be a favorable long term option, but for the moment his shine is brilliant. Coming off a career day, 29 carries and 121 yards rushing Harrison is looking at a good matchup for week 5 against the Bills 27th ranked run defense that is allowing 4.8 yards per carry. Harrison might not have another career day, but the prospects of having a good one look bright. He’ll be a hit and miss from week to week with matchups being a consideration, but he’s shown much ability and great promise.

In Denver

He’s hardly put up the numbers of a starting fantasy running back, but already we’ve seen the signs of rookie Knowshon Moreno’s greatness. In his first four games he’s yet to bust the century mark, but consistently he’s been getting the touches. With starter Correll Buckhalter sideline, this could be Moreno’s time to shine. In his last three games he’s averaged 19 touches and leads the team with 60 carries. This unpolished gem has tremendous talent and ability and is poised to become a star; something many figured would come later, but it appears his time is now.

In New York

The team’s newest acquisition wide receiver Braylon Edwards could be a featured component in the Jets aerial attack Monday night against a suspect Miami pass defense. Edwards leaves a ton of baggage behind, but arrives in the big Apple with a clean slate. Already slotted to start, Edwards is a dark horse just waiting to run wild. We’ve seen Edwards perform at a high level in the past and with a new team and a new start, we could see him return again. This week against a secondary that has been burned five times for 40 yards or more, Edwards could flourish. Look for this trade and first game to kick start Edwards going forward.

Worth keeping your eye on for now:

So far in this young 2009 season rookie wide receiver Kenny Britt has been a bright star in the titans passing game. Overshadowed by the veteran talent at the receiver spot, Britt has managed to hold his own, leading the team with 17 catches and 271 yards receiving. With a potential shootout looming this Sunday night, keep your eye on this kid as he continues to get better.

The Texan’s receiver Andre Davis is off to a very slow start this season with just three catches. Davis has missed the last three weeks due to injury, but will make his return this Sunday on the road against Arizona. Davis is coming off a poor production season in 2008, but with stability under center and his deep threat ability, the Texans could work him more into the gameplan. The Cards do allow 8 yards per pass (ranks 29th) and have been burned 10 times for 20 yards or more this season. Keep your eye on Davis.

Remember to check back for more “Diamonds in the Rough!”

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Week 4: Inside the Targets

Monday, October 5th, 2009

By Craig Davis
FantasyFootball.com

Derrick Mason

Looking at the NFL boxscores don’t always tell the entire story. You have to dig much deeper to see which players are being targeted more than you might think and where they’re being targeted before you can get an honest idea as to how involved each player really is…

- Bears WR Johnny Knox was targeted 8 times, including two in the red zone and one inside the 10-yard-line. Meanwhile, Earl Bennett was targeted just twice.

- Lions WR Calvin Johnson, not surprisingly, was targeted 12 times. When he starts catching TDs hes’ going to be invaluable. TE Brandon Pettigrew was a bit of a surprise, having 10 balls thrown his way which was second highest on the team. Two of those came in the red zone.

- Bengals WR Chad Ochocinco had 11 passes thrown his way but just three receptions. 2 of those went for TDs. 3 red zone targets and two of those inside the 10 yard line are definitely intriguing.

- RB Brian Leonard was second on the team in targets with seven and two of those came in the red zone. Definitely worth looking into as he caught six of those passes… in a PPR league that’s the equivalent of a TD.

- Waiver Wire Watch: The Cleveland Browns gave us three players to keep in mind for Week 5 vs. Buffalo. Muhammad Massaquoi had 13 targets, hauling in 8 catches for over 100 yards and seven of those 13 targets were deep passes. TE Steve Heiden has apparently taken over for Robert Royal, doubling him in pass targets this weekend (8 to 4). Heiden also had a TD reception. RB Jerome Harrison had seven targets and five receptions to go along with his 100+ rushing yards.

- I’m not sure why I’m telling you this… but WR Louis Murphy had 10 targets for the Oakland Raiders. When JaMarcus Russell is throwing the ball, does it really count?

- The Houston Texans continue to amaze me with their play-calling… throwing the ball to RB Steve Slaton just two times (he caught them both and took one to the house).

- TJ Houshmandzadeh received the most targets (11) in Seattle Sunday, but Seneca Wallace clearly tried to spread the wealth with 8 going to Nate Burleson, 6 to Deion Branch and 6 to TE John Carlson. Until Matt Hasselbeck returns, it’s going to be tough to start any of these guys as anything more than a WR3.

- For what it’s worth, Austin Collie had more targets (7) than Pierre Garcon (4) and also had a TD. It’s just one week and I’d suggest waiting before spending any money to acquire Collie.

- Nate Washington has arrived, with 12 targets and seven receptions, including a TD. Too bad Kerry Collins sucks or this might mean something.

- Mike Sims-Walker is clearly the WR1 in Jacksonville, getting 11 targets, 7 receptions and two TDs. Walker had three of those targets in the red zone and two in the end zone. Could be the top waiver wire pick of the week if he’s still around.

- I don’t think we can call Giants WR Steve Smith “the other Steve Smith” any longer. I think he’s going to end the season with better numbers than THEE Steve Smith from Carolins. Manning targeted Smith an amazing 16 times… and you all know how well he did. And don’t sleep on Mario Manningham… despite just one reception he was second on the team with 8 targets.

- Dwayne Bowe clearly isn’t 100% as evidenced by his 4 targets and one catch Sunday.

- Patriots RB Sammy Morris had a season-high 5 targets.

- Bucs TE Kellen Winslow has lost just about all his fantasy value (3 targets) with Josh Johnson at QB.

- Chris Cooley continues to improve his fantasy value, with a team-high 10 targets Sunday vs. Tampa while the next closest was Santana Moss with 4. I wonder if Jim Zorn realizes Clinton Portis can actually catch the ball… zero targets Sunday.

- Lance Moore must still not be 100% healthy because the Saints targeted him only one time.

- Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch combined for 11 targets Sunday vs. Miami.

- Ricky Williams and Ronnie Brown had just one target between them, but Brown did carry the ball 9 times in the red zone.

- Glen Coffee might not have had the best game statistically, but he did lead the team in targets (7). As he gets more comfortable in this offense, his numbers will improve.

- For the first time this season, the Dallas Cowboys spread the ball around to multiple receivers… Miles Austin led the way with 8 targets, Roy Williams and Patrick Crayton had 7 each, Tashard Choice had 6, Sam Hurd had 5, and Jason Witten had 4. Too bad Tony Romo was the one throwing the ball.

- Eddie Royal had as many targets (6) as Brandon Marshall, but it’s clear that Marshall knows how to go up and get and ball and he knows what to do with it when he catches it.

- Hines Ward (11) was targeted twice as much as Santonio Holmes (5). Heath Miller was second on the team in targets (9) and caught two TD passes.

- For the second time in four games, Chris Chambers (8) was targeted more than Vincent Jackson (7). Antonio Gates led the team in targets (12), receptions (9), receiving yards (124) and touchdowns (2). What baffles me is that Darren Sproles only had one ball thrown to him all game.

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Week 5: Ones to Watch

Monday, October 5th, 2009

By Ralph Mancini
NFLDraftBible.com

These players can be fantasy factors sooner than you think. Here are ones to watch…

VINCE YOUNG (TEN-QB)
: Zero victories and six interceptions are what Kerry Collins has accomplished so far as the field general of a preseason Super Bowl contender that has suddenly turned into Team Titanic. Coach Jeff Fisher continues to stand by his starter, but how long can he possibly stand behind an underperforming 36-year-old quarterback? The fact is, Tennessee invested a third pick in the first round on Young three years ago, and must find out if the former Texas Longhorn is the franchise player they thought they were getting. Young’s salary goes up significantly next year, which means that it’s time to fish or cut bait. Losses to Indianapolis and New England in the next two weeks may force Fisher’s hand in favor of Young.

SHONN GREENE (NYJ-RB): The rookie back saw his first action of the season this week by rambling for 23 yards on four carries versus New Orleans. The Jets will continue working in Greene to add some life to a running game, which has been dormant for the most part this season. The New Jersey native is a downhill runner that can run people over, but is also adept at following his blocks and hitting the cutback lanes before him. His pass-catching skills, however, remain a work in progress. Greene did tweak his ankle during the game.

BRIAN HARTLINE (MIA-WR)
: Hartline cut into Ted Ginn’s playing time versus Buffalo probably in response to Ginn’s inconsistent play and dropped passes. The 6’2” rookie made the most of his extra reps by turning one of his two catches into a 5-yard touchdown. Hartline isn’t a burner by any means, but he gets into his routes quickly and uses his size to make catches over smaller defenders. The coaching staff also likes his blocking ability.

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Darkhorses & Non-Starters Week 4 (aka Start & Sit)

Friday, October 2nd, 2009

Written by Colin Pekruhn
http://fantasyfootballwhiz.com

We’ve now come to a dreaded (or celebrated, depending on your roster) moment in the schedule; the start of bye weeks. Of course, this stretch also elevates the importance of articles like this, as owners are now forced to scrounge for potential gems on the waiver wire junk heap to fill in for idling studs. So, if you are missing key starters from the Philadelphia Eagles, Arizona Cardinals, Carolina Panthers, or Atlanta Falcons, listen up!

Oh, and if you care about my track record, please check out my weekly self-evaluations on my personal fantasy football blog, Gridiron Meanderings.

Quarterback Dark Horses

David Garrard, Jacksonville Jaguars – Garrard has not done a whole lot in his first three weeks, but this should be the week all that changes. This is a game the Jaguars need to win to have any chance to keeping pace in the AFC South, and their success lies in how well they pass the ball. The Tennessee Titans can play the run (rank 2nd), but they have yet to show they can defend the pass (rank 29th in pass defense). All signs point to a big week for Garrard.

Jason Campbell, Washington Redskins – Campbell and the entire offense are getting crucified in the press for their horrid loss in Detroit, but they are lucky to have the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to rebound against. Tampa has a poor passing defense (rank 21st), so Campbell should have a chance to finally get the team into the end zone this week. Some may argue Clinton Portis and the run game will have more success against the Buc’s 31st ranked run defense, but Jim Zorn needs to prove his passing attack can hold up in the red zone. Plus, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have allowed seven passing touchdowns versus only two rushing.

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers – On paper, Big Ben has a tough matchup against a good San Diego Chargers passing defense (ranked 8th), but Ben has a habit of looking good against the Chargers. For his career (including post-season), Ben averages 235 yards and a TD, and he wasn’t passing nearly as much back then. He should have to shoulder the load once again to win this game. Heck, he may even benefit on some deep balls if the running game shows some life, which is possible against the 26th ranked unit.

Quarterback Non-Starters

Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys – The Cowboys have struggled to remain consistent, and the offensive line is vulnerable to teams with good pass rushes. Elvis Dumervil has been on a(n) (un)holy tear of late against two decent lines, and he should continue to have success harassing Romo in Denver. Romo is looking at having a day similar to his nightmare against the New York Giants in week 2.

Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens – I like Flacco, and he’s progressing nicely in his second year, but the New England Patriots have actually held up well against the pass through three weeks. The last good passing defense he faced (San Diego) held him to 190 yards passing, and New England is a slightly better unit. That game was also his only road game thus far, and he is on the road up in New England. He should struggle again this week.

Mark Sanchez, New York Jets – Sanchez has performed as well as he has needed to, but that has not translated into great fantasy numbers. The New Orleans Saints have a solid defensive unit that should keep Sanchez in check. In fact, expect Sanchez to finally make a turnover or two against this very opportunistic unit.

Running Back Dark Horses

Rashard Mendenhall, Pittsburgh Steelers – Willie Parker is dealing with a painful case of turf toe, which should limit how much he can do this week. Mendenhall was publicly chastised for a poor week of practice last week, so he has a ton to prove this week. If there is a chance for this underperforming first-rounder to shine, this week is it. He’s worth considering as a flex play if you need help.

Tashard Choice, Dallas Cowboys – Currently, rumor has it that Marion Barber will be active, but Dallas will probably play it safe and have him split the load with Choice, especially with Felix Jones out the next couple weeks. Denver is not going to be an easy hurdle to clear, but Choice has taken advantage of every chance he’s had in his young career. He is the epitome of a dark horse.

Jamal Lewis/Jerome Harrison, Cleveland Browns – Lewis is questionable for Week Four, but looks likely to play this weekend. Willie Parker finally got it going against the Cincinnati Bengals last week, and my gut tells me Lewis, who is playing for his job now, will light it up. He will get some help with the Bengals having to now respect the deep ball of Derek Anderson, which opposing units did not have to worry about in the first three weeks against Brady Quinn. If Lewis sits, Harrison should find similar success in his place.

Running Back Non-starters

Thomas Jones, New York Jets – He’s been a major disappointment in the first three weeks, and it won’t get better against a good New Orleans Saints run defense (ranked 5th). Faster running backs like Fred Jackson have been more successful, which leads me to think Leon Washington will out-shine Jones once again this week.

Ryan Grant, Green Bay Packers – He’s been solid thus far, but the Minnesota Vikings run defense will be his toughest challenge of the season. He’s missing a lot of support on the offensive line, which will limit his usual success against the Vikings. If the Cincinnati Bengals can hold him to 46 yards rushing, so too can the Williams Wall.

Fred Taylor, New England Patriots – He showed us he still has a little left in the tank against the Atlanta Falcons, but just about anyone can run against that interior defense. There will be many an owner tempted to give him the nod this week, but they will be thoroughly disappointed with his efforts against the Baltimore Ravens. It will be the type of game in which Kevin Faulk should be the better option.

Wide Receiver Dark Horses

Torry Holt, Jacksonville Jaguars – Mike Sims-Walker is getting a lot of love after two solid weeks, but Holt has been seeing almost an equal number of looks. Tennessee will likely focus on the deep threat that is Sims-Walker, leaving Holt to work underneath.

Bernard Berrian, Minnesota Vikings – He’s been MIA through three weeks, but it all changes this week. In case you have not been watching ESPN, it’s Brett Favre vs. Green Bay in Minnesota on Monday Night Football. Despite what Favre says, he wants to shine against his old team, which means Berrian will see more deep balls coming his way. Now is the time for frustrated owners to give him another chance.

Brandon Marshall, Denver Broncos – I said not to expect much out of him until he proved he was back in the zone, but it looks like he’s back. Dallas has a miserable secondary that can even Kyle Orton can take apart. Marshall should find the end zone again as he abuses any and all of the Cowboys’ cornerbacks.

Wide Receiver Non-Starters

Percy Harvin, Minnesota Vikings – Everyone and their mother drools like Pavlov’s dog when they hear Harvin’s name, and so far he has lived up to the hype. However, he’s about to face the toughest secondary to-date of his young career, and the Packers’ 3-4 alignment may hinder any carries he might get. Owners should be cautious if they can afford to be.

Ted Ginn, Miami Dolphins – It’s uncertain what kind of rapport Chad Henne will have with Ginn, and this is not a good week for owners to gamble. Buffalo will still get pressure on the quarterback despite being banged up in the secondary, and Henne did not look Ginn’s way in Week Three. In fact, it looks like Davone Bess may be the real winner with the new quarterback. This is a case where everything on the surface favors starting Ginn, but at best Ginn should be your flex play if you really need to roll the dice.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh, Seattle Seahawks – Despite getting plenty of targets (nine every game), he’s produced what can only be politely described as disappointing numbers. In fact, based on targets, he’s really the number two wide receiver behind Nate Burleson. The Indianapolis Colts’ secondary has been surprisingly resilient and should limit Mr. Championship’s opportunities.

Tight End Dark Horses

Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers – Miller continues to be an underrated tight end option, but is a major offensive weapon for the Steelers. He’s been targeted an average of six times every game, and he’s due for a score. In fact, after last week’s debacle in scoring, Ben Roethlisberger should go back to looking for Big Money in the red zone. The San Diego Chargers have given Zach Miller his only big game and allowed Todd Heap to score in Week Two – something tells me Miller should find the end zone in Week Four.

Anthony Fasano, Miami Dolphins – A young starting quarterback’s best friend is a pass catching tight end, and Fasano is exactly that. A depleted Buffalo Bills defense will still be getting pressure on Henne, so he will need to go to his hot read, which should be Fasano in many cases. He’s worthy of a start this week.

Kevin Boss, New York Giants – The Chiefs are terrible in coverage against opposing tight ends. Brent Celek and Todd Heap had monster games against them, and we can throw out Zach Miller’s bad day given how poorly JaMarcus Russell has been throwing the ball. Boss is due for a big game, and this has the look of being it.

Tight End Non-Starters

Visanthe Shiancoe, Minnesota Vikings – Shiancoe has yet to show owners anything close to what they expected when Brett Favre decided to un-retire for the second time. He’s targeted less than four times a game and has produced just six catches for 49 yards and a score. Not ground-breaking numbers. Barring Daniel Fells’ out-of-nowhere two score game, which we’ll consider a shoot-out mulligan, the Packers have defended the tight end position well. Shiancoe is a risky play until he sees more focus in the offense.

Zach Miller, Oakland Raiders – Miller receives plenty of looks in the offense, but his quarterback throws about as well as a drunken frat boy on a Saturday night. As good as this week’s match-up is against the Houston Texans, owners have to bench Miller until JaMarcus Russell proves he can complete passes.

Daniel Fells, St. Louis Rams – Don’t be fooled by his Week Three score-fest: the Rams will have a tough time passing this week against a solid San Francisco 49ers defense, and it’s highly unlikely Fells scores even once this week. Unless you’re very desperate, wise owners will wait to see how Kyle Boller operates in this offense before committing to an unknown quantity like Fells.

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Pschocat’s Crystal Litterbox Game Predictions Week 3

Friday, September 25th, 2009

The Litterbox continued the hot start last week, with only a Lawrence Tynes FG with time expiring preventing another perfect week. With the record at 6-1 so far, let’s see what this week holds in store.

49ers at Vikings: The weekend’s only matchup of 2-0 teams features the #1 and #3 RBs in the league versus defenses that have been effective against the run. Only the Ravens and Titans have been stingier against the run than the 49ers, who are allowing just 53.0 ypg with no TDs. The Vikings haven’t been quite that stellar, but still are allowing only 103 ypg with no TDs. However, this weekend will be a true test of those defenses, as neither has faced top-flight rushers yet.

49ers’ keys: After shutting down the Cardinals’ Beanie Wells and Tim Hightower and Seattle’s Julius Jones, the 49ers get the unenviable task of trying to shut down Adrian Peterson. That means they’ll need a big game from LB Patrick Willis, who has 16 solo tackles in the first two games.

While RB Frank Gore is 3rd in the league in rushing with 237 yards and is tied for 2nd in TDs with 3, those numbers are a tad deceiving. In week 1 versus the Cardinals, he had 30 yds and a TD on 22 carries. Last week against the Seahawks, he went off for 207 yds and 2 TDs, with the touchdowns coming on runs of 79 and 80 yds. They need Gore to be able to pound the ball even against the Williams’ Wall.

The 49ers also need to get far more production out of their passing game than they have thus far. QB Shaun Hill has only 353 yds passing and 1 TD, and has been sacked 8 times. Seemingly ageless WR Issac Bruce leads the team in receiving yardage with 109 and is tied for the lead in catches with 8. The 49ers o-line will have to do a better job against the Vikings, who have 7 sacks thus far, or Hill will spend quite a bit of time on his back.

Vikings’ keys: First and foremost, get another big day from Peterson, who has 272 yards and 4 TDs thus far, both tops in the league. The defenses that Peterson has faced have been the Lions and the Browns, which are both weak against the run, so this will be his 1st big test.

Vikings QB Brett Favre actually has less passing yardage (265) and has been sacked almost as much as Hill (7 times), but he has completed over 77% of his passes. He did have two TD passes against the Lions last week, one for 3 yds and another for 1. Rookie WR Percy Harvin leads the team in both catches with 8 and receiving yardage with 77, and has caught two of Favre’s 3 TD passes. Look for Favre to continue to get Berrian more involved and try to go deep several times.

The Vikings run defense, which has only had to deal with an aging Browns RB Jamal Lewis and the Lions’ Kevin Smith, will have a much tougher task against Gore. The man to watch here is LB E.J. Henderson, who has 14 solo tackles thus far. Henderson will have to attack the line more often to try and get on top of Gore before he gets going.

Prediction: With both teams focusing on shutting down the other one’s ground game, this one could swing on which mediocre passing game is better. Because of the experience of Favre, the edge goes to the Vikings, although it should be close:

Vikings 24 – 49ers 20

Titans at Jets: If there ever was a must-win game this early in the season, it’s this one for the Titans. After a heartbreaking overtime loss to the Steelers in week 1 and a shootout loss to the Texans last week, they stand at 0-2. With the Colts 2-0 and the Texans 1-1, they really can’t afford another loss. The Jets are flying high at 2-0 after beating the Texans and winning a key divisional game against the Patriots last week.

Titans’ keys: They’ll need another monster game from RB Chris Johnson, who did everything but sell popcorn last week. Johnson is 2nd in the league in rushing after a monster game last week with 197 rushing yds and 2 TDs. As if that wasn’t enough, he also added 87 receiving yards and another TD.

The Titans’ passing game has been adequate so far. QB Kerry Collins has thrown for 460 yds and 3 TDs and only been sacked 3 times. Collins spreads the ball around a lot, with WRs rookie Kenny Britt, veteran Justin Gage and RB Johnson as his primary targets. This week it looks like Nate Washington is fully and will also join the mix. The Jets have been tough against the run and mediocre against the pass so Collins may be forced to pass more this week, although that still will not be easy.

After last week’s debacle against the Texans, the defense needs to rebound strong. They only allowed 30+ points once all last season. But Texans’ QB Matt Schaub shredded them with 357 yds and 4 TDs, and WR Andre Johnson beat their secondary like an old rug, going off with 10 catches for 149 yds and 2 TDs. Fortunately for them, the Jets don’t have a marquee receiver like Johnson.

Jets’ keys: Stopping Johnson will be the biggest priority for them. They’ve allowed only 60.5 rushing yards and no TDs thus far, but Texans’ RB Steve Slaton is off to a slow start and the Patriots’ running game is virtually non-existent.

Rookie head coach Rex Ryan has the Jets hitting on all cylinders, and has brought a fire to the team that they lacked all last year. Ryan installed rookie QB Mark Sanchez as the starter, and Sanchez has been cool under pressure thus far throwing for 435 yds and 2 TDs vs only 1 pick. He also leads the league in every 3rd-down category except touchdowns, something that is unheard of from a rookie. Sanchez will need that cool this week.

Sanchez spreads the ball around well with WRs Jerricho Cotchery, Chansi Stuckey and TE Dustin Keller all having at least 7 catches and over 100 yds receiving. The offensive line has also done a great job protecting the kid, who has only been sacked twice.

The Jets don’t have anyone who can match Johnson at RB. However, RBs Thomas Jones (161 yds, 2 TDs) and Leon Washington (118 yds) have gotten the job done. And with his breakaway speed, Washington is also a threat as a receiver.

Prediction: It’s time for the Titans to step up and prove they’re contenders instead of pretenders.  It should be a good game, but the Titans get the edge:

Titans 27 – Jets 17

Falcons at Patriots: The Patriots are also a team desperately needing a win, and a convincing one at that. After trailing the Bills for most of game 1, it took two TDs in the last 2 minutes to eke out a one-point win. The Jets totally dominated them last week, winning 16-9 in a game that wasn’t as close as the score indicated. On the other hand, the Falcons are off to a hot start after winning their first two against the Dolphins and Panthers.

Patriots’ keys: They don’t have much of a ground game; new acquisition Fred Taylor leads the team in rushing with 71 yds and a TD, and is the only RB to have scored thus far. That means QB Tom Brady needs to rebound big time from last week’s fiasco, where he threw for only 216 yds and no TDs. So far, Brady’s TD total and his pick total are equal at 2, that needs to change…and fast.

Brady was also hampered last week by not having WR Wes Welker, who had 223 catches over the last 2 seasons and 12 in the first game this year. Welker is Brady’s security blanket, and if he can’t go this week, rookie WR Julian Edelman, who had 8 catches for 98 yds last week, will have to step up again.

Although WR Randy Moss has 16 catches for 165 yds, he has yet to find the end zone. Brady’s two TD passes both went to TE Ben Watson in the last two minutes of the Bills’ game; they need more scores from the rest of the receiving corps.

Falcons’ keys: RB Michael Turner (170 yds, 1 TD) will need to run a lot and be productive to help the Falcons control the clock. The Patriots’ defense can be run on; they’ve allowed 103.5 yds per game rushing. It also helps to keep Brady and the offense off the field.

Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan is off to a fast start, with 449 yds passing and 5 TDs vs one pick, and he’s only been sacked twice. Ryan has a new target in former Chiefs’ TE Tony Gonzalez, who leads the team with 12 catches, 144 receiving yards, and 2 TDs. WR Roddy White is also dangerous (11, 95, 1) and WR Michael Jenkins (7, 74) gives them another good option. Ryan will need to make big plays at important points in this game for the Falcons to be there at the end of the game.

Prediction: If Brady can return to form and lead some scoring drives, this could well be a shootout. The Falcons have the talent to play with the Patriots, and this one could well hinge on which team makes the fewest mistakes. Right now, that looks like the Falcons:

Falcons 31 – Patriots 24

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