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Taz’s Almost Buried But Not Dead Sleepers

Monday, August 31st, 2009

I’m not sure about you, but the NFL network is now on in my house 24 hours a day and my wife is ready to move out. No worries though, as I have a direct line to the local Pizza Brothers restaurant and after 16 years of marriage sex is something best remembered and not done.

All that aside, I now present to you the final chapter of this series on sleepers. Last Thursday I presented you my list of PSEUDO Sleepers and on Friday I gave you my super DEEP 6 Sleepers, some of which are already paying off. I read this morning that Arnaz Battle may beat out Josh Morgan for a starting spot and Michael Lombardi of The National Football Post speculates that the Browns may release Jamal Lewis and make James Davis the starter.

This installment is entitled “Almost Buried but Not Dead Sleepers”. These are players that are not on the mind of many, if any, fantasy football owners, which is why they may very well be the secret weapons your team needs to move to the top of your league’s standings. We all know the top guys each year, but it is the owners that can pick out players that make all the other owners say “I’ve never even heard of that guy, who does he play for?” that can put a team over the top. This is a list of such people.
Keep in mind though that these players are not ones you should draft in normal 10-12 team leagues. You should definitely keep them on your radar for waiver wire pickups later in the season if they break out, but these guys are mostly here for owners in much deeper or larger roster leagues. These are the guys they will need to fill out their rosters.

Now before we start this list I need you to do a couple of things for me. First run your thumb over the biometric scanner on your computer. Then when that is accepted, move your eye up to the retinal scanner. Once you have passed those tests, please enter your personal 16 digit code to retrieve this information. Then we can continue.

]Good, you got in. Glad to hear it. Now let’s get started.

Andrew Walter QB NEP – Ok so maybe your league-mates know the name, but no one would consider drafting him. Here’s why you should. Walter is a decent QB with a very strong arm; in fact it is much stronger than Matt Cassel’s. If Brady’s shoulder is worse than we think, or if he gets hurt in another fluke play like last year, then Walter will be handed the reins of a very strong offensive unit. This unit comes complete with 2 very good deep threats in Moss and Galloway. If the patriots don’t pick up another QB in the next week, then Walter is a good player to have in a deep league behind Brady.

Tom Brandstater QB DEN – Brandstater had not been having a great camp, but looked much better in this past week’s game against Chicago. When Orton went out early with a boo boo to his throwing hand’s index finger, Brandstater stepped in and played against the 1^st team defense of Chicago. He ended up with serviceable stats. He completed 8 of 12 passes for 110 yards, but also had an interception. Now you have to temper expectations, but if Simms is put on the PUP list to start the season, which is very possibly as he tries to get over his high ankle sprain, then Brandstater moves into the backup role. Then if Orton goes down, they may hand it over to Brandstater. Now couple this with the fact that the Denver defense is not very stout and he may have to throw a lot and I do mean A LOT. Brandstater is a big, strong QB who is very smart and while it is a long-shot, could end up with serviceable numbers if thrown into the mix. BUT keep an eye on Kevin O’Connell who was released by the Patriots today as McDaniels was key to his being drafted by the Patriots.

Tyrell Sutton RB GBP – While Sutton wasn’t drafted in this year’s draft, Green Bay wasted no time in signing him soon after. He is short at 5’8”, but carries good weight and is a tough runner with excellent balance. He is currently 4^th on the depth chart behind Ryan Grant, Brandon Jackson and DeShawn Wynn, but Jackson is already down with a bad ankle injury and Wynn has shown a knack for getting hurt. In limited preseason action and against 2^nd and 3^rd stringers, Sutton has averaged 5.1 yards per carry and has shown some nice bursts through the line. If Jackson is out for a bit and Wynn continues to struggle, or gets hurt, look for Sutton to get a good amount of playing time.

Jason Wright RB ARI – Wright came over to the Cardinals this last offseason in free agency from Cleveland. In a couple of spot starts he did well and many thought he would get his chance next, but that never materialized. I’m sure when Wright signed with Arizona he had thoughts of trying to take that top spot away from current starter Tim Hightower. But alas poor Jason, the team goes out and drafts heralded rookie RB Chris Wells and Wright watched his playing time fly out the window. Or had he? Wells has already shown that the injury tag he carried to the NFL from college is a legit one, already missing a lot of practice and game time and only recently has he gotten back on the field. If you are like me and have some doubts about Wells, then Wright becomes an intriguing pickup very late in your drafts.

Kory Sheets RB SFR – Sheets is the rookie running back you’re NOT hearing about in San Francisco. Glen Coffee is the one you are and rightly so because Coffee is having an outstanding camp and preseason. So it is unusual that two rookie running backs on the same team are having good camps at the same time, but that is what’s happening. Sheets went undrafted and was quickly scooped up by San Francisco. He is currently buried behind Gore and fellow rookie Glen Coffee on the depth chart and I don’t see that changing, but Gore is known to get injured and miss time. If this happens then Sheets should get the chance to get some nice playing time. Sheets was productive on a bad Purdue team and is a very good receiver out of the backfield. His senior season was his only one as the true starter and he put up over 1100 yards and added 37 catches. He ended up as Purdue’s all-time rushing touchdown leader with 41 touchdowns. He also saw some time at Safety in this last preseason game, so who knows what happens there. Don’t sleep on this sleeper.

Kenny Moore WR CAR – Just a week ago many thought Moore was fighting for a roster spot and this week he is being listed as the #3WR ahead of a disappoint Dwayne Jarrett. Talk about shooting up the depth chart. Moore was a 5^th round pick in 2008 but didn’t see any playing time. He has been playing and practicing much better this year and looks to be settling into the #3WR role. This may not be enough for him to be fantasy viable unless Steve Smith or Muhsin Muhammad gets injured, but that is very possible. There is even the news today that Ryne Robinson was released by Carolina which certainly helps Moore’s chances.

Chad Jackson WR DEN – Jackson is someone whose value will come if Brandon Marshall keeps playing the fool. Because of the injury to Jabar Gaffney, who broke his thumb during last Friday’s practice, and the Marshall suspension, Jackson has seen many more reps in practice. He is a guy who McDaniels went after in the 2006 draft and is still high on, so if Marshall continues with his foolishness, don’t be surprised to see Jackson line up opposite Eddie Royal.

Sammie Stroughter WR TBB – Stroughter was a 7^th round pick in the 2009 draft and many thought he would have a hard time making this squad, but he has done nothing but impress all offseason. It now looks like has a great shot to lock up the #3WR role and see a lot of action out of the slot. He is not known for burning speed, but he is tough enough to go over the middle and fight for the ball. He has played well enough for the team to release 2008 2^nd round selection Dexter Jackson today. He is also an excellent return man and if your league awards points for this, Stroughter is a great fit for your team.

James Casey TE HOU – Casey was a 5^th round selection who came into the NFL Draft after only playing 2 years at Rice and many thought that he was too raw to make the Texans. He has squelched those thoughts and is a lock to make the team after an exceptional camp and preseason. How much does the team want to get the ball into his hands? They’re even thinking of letting him try short yardage carries, just to see if he can handle it – that’s how much. However, Daniels is only on a 1-year contract because the team didn’t want to meet his demands to become the highest paid TE in the NFL. If Owens isn’t outstanding or if Casey continues to thrive, I can see the Texans letting Daniels go down the road and moving Casey into the starting lineup. If Owens isn’t outstanding or if Casey continues to thrive, I can see the Texans letting Daniels go and move Casey into the starting lineup.

Well that’s the end of my sleeper series…..for now. There is a good chance that I will follow this up with an IDP list this Friday, but don’t tell anyone. The secret is ours.

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Taz’s DEEP 6 Sleepers

Monday, August 31st, 2009

Yesterday I posted my list of Taz’s Pseudo Sleepers, guys that are well known but for one reason or another are still being drafted way too low in my opinion. Today’s edition of Deep 6 Sleepers will delve into players that need some help to become fantasy viable, but that help could be only one play away.

Today’s sleepers are players you most likely have heard of but most don’t feel they have any fantasy value in 2009. I am going to show you how each of these guys could become fantasy viable and in some cases fantasy studs.

Now close your office door, check for any hidden cameras and shield your computer from prying eyes as I present only to you (well YOU were smart enough to read this) the sleepers that could put your fantasy team over the top and right into a CHAMPIONSHIP.

Taz’s DEEP 6 Sleepers

Chad Henne QB MIA – Going into preseason many thought Henne would take the starting role from current starter Chad Pennington, but while Henne has had a solid camp, he was not good enough to take the starting job. But what if…

What if Pennington were to get hurt? He has had some major injuries in the past, including 2 surgeries to repair a torn rotator cuff in 2005.
What if his play just deteriorated? He was benched in 2007 after starting 1-7.
What if the “every other year” curse continues to show its ugly head?

If any of these happen, Henne will get handed the reins of a decent offense and would then become a viable fantasy QB. I’m not saying get him on your roster right this minute, but watch for the signs. Sparano would have no problem making the change if Pennington falters for any reason.

Matt Leinart QB ARI – There were some rumblings early in camp that Brian St Pierre had passed Leinart for the backup QB spot, don’t you believe it. Leinart has outplayed St Pierre at every turn and will be the guy the team turns to if the 99 year old (I kid, I kid…) Kurt Warner gets hurt (again) or if he gets demoted for bad play (again). I find it funny that Warner has been demoted for the likes of Eli Manning, Leinart, Marc Bulger and even Josh McCown so far in his career. Sure Warner has had two solid years in a row now, but his history shows that this can change at any time. If you draft Warner, keep your eye on Leinart late. If Leinart gets in you have a steal with that receiving corps.

Mike Goodson RB CAR – Carolina drafted Goodson in the 4^th round of the 2009 Draft and most people figured that he would spend a lot of time on special teams and shadowing the two top backs that Carolina currently has, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart. But for the 2^nd year in a row Stewart is having a hard time getting on the practice field. He has currently missed 16 straight days of practice. Many will say he missed a lot of time in last year’s preseason but still put up good numbers in the regular season, but I ask you; did he really? Let’s look a little closer at those numbers.

He ended the season with almost 900 total yards and 10 touchdowns, which are definitely not shabby numbers, especially for a rookie. So right about now you have to be ready to ask me what the heck I am talking about. Luckily, I feel like telling you.

In 16 games he only passed 4.0 yards per carry 5 times and the times he did pass it he usually had one or two big runs then a bunch of under average runs. From a fantasy perspective he only scored over 10 pts 5 times in basic scoring PPR leagues, while having 3 weeks under 2.1 pts.

He is very inconsistent and has been fighting injuries since college. If this continues, look for Goodson to get more touches, especially when you consider that Goodson is a much better receiver out of the backfield and may even find times were they spread him out wide.

Mike Bell RB NOS – Bell has been getting a lot of press in the last few days, especially after Drew Brees called him “The MVP of training camp”, but fantasy owners aren’t buying it. This is nothing new to Bell as he went undrafted in the real 2006 NFL Draft too, but after a strong camp was named the starter for the Broncos before week 1.

Many fantasy owners jumped on the bandwagon because any RB playing in Denver’s offense could put up huge numbers; I mean we all know that, right? But then in week 1 Tatum Bell was actually the starter with Mike Bell as a backup with a limited role. It wasn’t until week 8 when he came in for the injured Tatum Bell, that Mike actually put up good stats. He had 135 yards and 2 touchdowns in just one half against the Colts. Fantasy owners that had held onto him were jumping for joy. “There’s my guy now”, they all said. “UH UH”…In week 9 he faced Pittsburgh and only put up 28 yards on 17 attempts and was promptly made inactive for week 10. He did finish the season with a few decent games and 5 more touchdowns, but that was the last time anyone saw Bell as an RB. Until now…

Fast forward to 2009 and we find that Bell was picked up by the Saints when Aaron Stecker was placed on Injured Reserve. Most assumed he would simply be a camp body and released before the season, but I guess Bell had other ideas. He has looked very solid in camp and had a good 2^nd preseason game with 10 rushes for 100 yards and a touchdown.

Now I am not saying go out and jump on him right now because he is a stud, but he is playing behind Bush who is constantly hurt and Pierre Thomas who was just shut down for the rest of preseason with a knee injury. Plus look back to last year and see that Thomas was in this exact position and no one thought anything of him. How did that turn out? If Bell gets any kind of playing time in this offense he could be very helpful to your fantasy team.

Samkon Gado RB STL – Gado is another who had a brief foray into the fantasy world in 2005, actually very brief, but suddenly finds himself in a position to get some playing time. Now this is absolutely not a guarantee, but he has been the best backup back in preseason so far, punctuating that with a 2 touchdown performance last night against Cincinnati.

If Gado gets the number 2 slot then this is a no brainer as Stephen Jackson WILL miss games this year. He has missed 4 games in each of the last two years. Now I am not saying Gado will put up decent stats with Jackson in there, because if Jackson is healthy he gets the ball as much as possible and Gado’s touches will be limited, but when Jackson goes down, I think Gado get 1^st chance at carries. If you have the room, stashing Gado might not be a bad move.

Jerheme Urban WR ARI – Urban has been lights out during camp and it looks as if he has locked up the #4WR role. In fact in this week’s preseason game he will be starting due to injuries to both Anquan Boldin and Steve Breaston. Neither injury is consider serious though, so this is just a spot start, but remember that Boldin does have an injury history and has missed games in each of the last two years. In this high-flying offense Urban could see a huge increase if Boldin or Breaston go down again. He should easily surpass his 2008 numbers of 34 receptions, 448 yards and 4 touchdowns.

Arnaz Battle WR SFR – Battle has been a constant in San Francisco since 2003 but every year there seems to be better options brought in. It was supposed to be the same in 2009 as the team went out and picked up a young and talented receiver named Brandon Jones in the offseason then drafted a WR many believed was the best in the draft, Michael Crabtree. Caught behind 2^nd year receiver Josh Morgan, 3^rd year player Jason Hill, old-time vet Isaac Bruce and now phenom rookie Crabtree and the up and coming Jones, many thought that Arnaz Battle was fighting not only for playing time, but also for a roster spot.

Oh how times have changed.

The rookie phenom has turned out to be an idiot and is still holding out. Brandon Jones is out until at least late September with a broken right shoulder, and Jason Hill has had a VERY mediocre camp. All of a sudden Battle finds himself #3 on the depth chart and is looking at significant snaps.

It’s not like Battle hasn’t had success before, he was the leading receiver on the team in both 2006 and 2007, albeit with 59 and 50 receptions respectively. He has also been getting snaps at QB in the team’s version of the wildcat they call the Taser. He is not even being drafted in most drafts, but if you have the chance to take a late round flyer on him, I think you will see some decent results especially in the beginning of the year.

Jason Avant WR PHI – Avant has been having a stellar camp and is currently listed as the #3WR behind DeSean Jackson and Kevin Curtis. The problem with this is that Kevin Curtis is still fighting lingering injuries and didn’t play again last night. Avant, meanwhile, was being targeted 9 times and hauled in 5 of them for 92 yards, mostly against Jags 1^st team defense. Now we all know that Jackson has looked phenomenal in camp and will obviously be the #1 target, but if Curtis continues to struggle Maclin should get the shot at Split End, but instead of hurting Avant, I think it helps him. It is very obvious that McNabb is learning to rely on Avant to be where he needs him to be and I think he will see more targets than the rookie at split end.

A little background on Avant in case you don’t know much about him. His last two seasons at the University of Michigan were so good he was nominated in both years for The Fred Biletnikoff Award, which is given each year to the top WR in the NATION. This is no slouch accomplishment. Now he didn’t win either year, but that doesn’t detract from the fact that he is an excellent receiver who runs great routes and is not afraid to fight for the ball. He is a steal because you can draft him with your very last pick in most drafts and take the chance that you have this year’s breakout receiver on your championship roster.

Gary Barnidge TE CAR – Barnidge is someone who most fantasy owners don’t know, yet he is the starting TE for Carolina this year. Barnidge is a big target with excellent hands and a knack for getting open and because of the lack of a true #3 WR, could see increased targets. Now we all know Carolina isn’t known for producing stud TEs, and I don’t think that is going to happen here, but Barnidge is a guy who could end up with 50 receptions, 450 yards and 4-5 touchdowns. Before you start to yell and make a ruckus in your cubicle or office that no Carolina TE would catch that many passes, just have a look at Jeff King’s 46 receptions in 2007.

Again I know they are not stellar numbers, but they could be decent backup numbers, especially in larger leagues. So while other guys are grabbing the “normal” backup TEs, you can stock up at other positions and grab Barnidge much later.

Ok that’s the end of our DEEP 6 Sleepers and I hope that I gave you some names to think about come draft day. Don’t forget to check in on Monday to see my Almost Buried but Not Dead Sleepers (In fact, they’re getting better…)

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Taz’s Pseudo Sleepers

Monday, August 31st, 2009

Every year I go around the web to see which players are listed as sleepers on other sites and some of the names I see amaze me. When I see that big name sites, that will remain nameless here, list players such as Matt Ryan or Roy Williams (WR) as a sleeper pick, because they will break out this year, when in fact these are two of the most over-hyped players in this year’s draft IMO. All I can do is shake my head and ask how in the heck these guys get to post anything at all.

I am going to break my sleepers into 3 categories and post them each separately:

Pseudo Sleepers (names you know but are still being drafted too low)

Deep 6 Sleepers (players that seem to be going late in drafts but should easily outperform their draft spots)

and

Almost Buried but Not Dead Sleepers (players that are just not on many FF owners radars).

Depending on your league size and roster depth, I hope that one of these lists will help you make some tough decisions come draft day and then cutdown day in bigger leagues. So let’s get to it.

Pseudo Sleepers:

Kyle Orton QB DEN – Orton is being drafted way too low IMO. According to www.fantasyfootballcalculator.com he is currently the 18^th QB off the board. This means he is being drafted behind QBs like Matt Ryan, Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Hasselbeck. While I think all 3 of these QBs are solid, they will not be good fantasy QBs in 2009. Orton has a great supporting staff and will be playing from behind often. I look for him to finish in the top 12 QBs. He is big value where he is being drafted.

Chad Pennington QB MIA – Pennington is another one who gets no respect. He had this to say in a recent article; “I get no respect. The way my luck is running, if I was a politician I would be honest.” Okay so maybe that was Rodney Dangerfield, but it sure fits. Pennington is the only player in the history of the NFL to win the Comeback Player of the Year Award twice. He is also the NFL’s career leader in completion percentage (66%). He’s not a guy who will throw 30 TDs or 4500 yards, but last year he had over 3,600 yards and 19 TDs with only 7 INTs. I look for his 2009 numbers to mimic those. He finished 10^th in basic scoring leagues last year, but it being drafted as the 23^rd QB (13.03) taken. Take him late and solidify another position early, then grab Pennington as your number 2 late. It is a solid plan.

Ray Rice RB BAL – Ok not so much a true sleeper as a guy who just is being drafted way too low. People are concerned that Baltimore will have a 3-headed monster at RB, but that is incorrect. Rice will be an every-down back that will even get goal line chances, as evidenced by his 3 yard TD against the Jets in the last preseason game. He maybe small at 5’8”, but he is extremely powerful and has very good hands out of the backfield. He is being drafted as the 22^nd RB off the board, but could easily end up in the top 12.

James Davis RB CLE – Up until the last 5 days, Davis would have been on the Deep Sleepers list, but this cat is clawing its way out of the bag. This kid is good and has been the best back on the team all offseason. He is starting the 3^rd preseason game which most assume most closely resembles the team for the start of the season. He broke a nice 80-yard TD last week; of course it was against the Lions, but so what. It wouldn’t matter in the real season. His ADP has climbed almost 2 full rounds in the last 3 days and is currently at 13.08, or the 57^th RB off the board. With Lewis going 5 rounds earlier (8.03), I say let some other schlub take Lewis in the 8^th, then you can grab the real starter in the 12^th. Don’t wait until the 13^th anymore. The cat is a hissing

Eddie Royal WR DEN – New QB, New Coach, WR1 who needs a lobotomy, so you ask, how could I list Eddie Royal as a sleeper. Fair question and glad you asked, here’s why; Orton may not have the arm Cutler has but he is extremely accurate and will throw the ball a ton in a Josh McDaniels offense. Royal finished #11 in basic ppr leagues as a rookie and they say he has done nothing but get better all camp. I look for him to at least attain that number, but yet he is the 22^nd WR taken off the board in average drafts. Grab him there, but be very happy when he finishes much higher.

Isaac Bruce WR SFR – Bruce has been virtually ignored in most drafts even with rookie Michael Crabtree continuing to hold out and I just can’t figure out why. They don’t have any bona-fide studs at WR and I know everyone is high on Morgan, but he hasn’t produced anything yet. Bruce is a steady receiver who will always be where he is supposed to be and is not afraid to go after the ball. In weeks 12-16 last year with Hill at QB, Bruce had 33 receptions for a little under 400 yards and 3 TDs. Not spectacular, but very solid. When I see guys like Miles Austin, Devery Henderson, Kevin Curtis, and Darrius Heyward-Bey being drafted ahead of him I think it is just ludicrous.

Brent Celek TE PHI – Celek became a household name in the Conference Championship last year against Arizona when he caught 10 passes for 83 yards and 2 touchdowns and was quickly crowned a sleeper for 2009. Ok I was (and still am) on board with that, but I think we lost a lot of people along the way. The Eagles drafted a dominate TE in Cornelius Ingram and Celek was promptly pushed down in a lot of people’s minds, but then he was lost for the season to the same exact injury that he had last year at about the same time. So even with that, Celek’s ADP has not varied much from the 13^th round range. I think taking him as a backup TE late could pay off huge dividends as McNabb loves him some TEs.

That’s it for today’s Pseudo Sleepers. Read again tomorrow as I dig a little deeper and venture into Deep 6 Sleepers and then follow it with Almost Buried but Not Dead Sleepers on Monday.

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Your First Fantasy Football Auction

Thursday, August 27th, 2009

By Sam Kline, the Human Fantasy Hintbook

http://fantasyhintbook.blogspot.com/

Most of you have spent your fantasy football careers acquiring players at the outset of the season via the draft system. While there is a great deal of anticipation to drawing crumbled-up pieces of paper out of a hat to decide the draft order, an auction is a much more fun and enveloping ritual. In an auction, psychology and money management must be factored into a successful strategy when fleshing out your roster. In an auction, anyone can own Adrian Peterson, not just the lucky sap who drew a “1″ out of the hat during a draft lottery. Throughout my years being involved in fantasy auctions, I have acquired a few nuggets of wisdom (sometimes, the hard way), and will now impart said wisdom to you. In short, a draft is like a game of checkers while an auction is more akin to chess.

KNOW YOUR ENEMIES – If you are in a league with your buddies, coworkers, or acquaintances, knowledge of your league competition is of paramount importance. Before your auction, gather as much intel as possible on your leaguemates’ favorite teams, favorite players, who they picked in previous years, and which university they attended or favor. It is also helpful to know if they’re generally spendthrift or frugal with their money. You’d be surprised how their spending habits in real life will mirror how they shop for their fantasy squad. If you are in a one-on-one bidding war with someone, you’ll know they’ll likely bid a bit over market value on someone from their favorite team, alma mater, or their best player from last season’s fantasy team that had a monster year for them. If you’re bidding on a handcuff RB with someone who owns the starting RB from the same team, then you’ll likely get them to prolong the bidding for a couple more rounds and deplete their funds more quickly.

KNOW THE MARKET – In the case of a fantasy auction, the “market” is defined as the remaining players available in the free agent pool before the auction ends in conjunction with the remaining people who can bid on a player. For example, in many auctions, you are only allowed to bid on your starting lineup first. That means if someone already bought two quarterbacks in a 2-QB league, that team is ineligible to bid on any more QBs. Fewer bidders means fewer people driving up the price, or, as I affectionately call these people, “Price Driver-Uppers,” which typically results in a lower price for a player. Even if an elite asset is still available, they’ll be cheaper if they’re acquired later in the draft (when people have filled up their roster spots and have run out of money) than earlier. Also, it is important to be aware of the remaining elite talent available per position. If someone has merely adequate wide receivers, and the only supreme talent left is, say, Reggie Wayne, then you will be able to gouge that person for extra cash by driving up Wayne’s price before dropping out of the auction (unless you also need Wayne on your squad).

USE THE DRAFT BOARD – Consider this to be “Know the Market: Part 2.” By using the draft board, typically mounted on a wall of the room you are auctioning in, you can see 1) who has glaring holes in the team they are assembling, meaning how much they will (over)pay for a stud to give them a better feeling about how their lineup will shake out come Week 1. Also, you can use the draft board to 2) see the number of people eligible to bid on a certain position by looking at their rosters, and get a feel for how much a particular player might cost. 3) It is important to use the draft board to establish market value – to see how much your leaguemates are paying for talent of all tiers. If Tony Romo went off the board for $30, then you can expect to pay at least as much, if not more, for Drew Brees. If someone paid $37 for Michael Turner, then, unless you have a dearth of talent at RB, you shouldn’t expect to pay more than $28 for, say, Thomas Jones.

KEEP AN EAGLE EYE ON YOUR FINANCES – Nothing feels worse than running low on money early in the auction when there are still a bunch of available players you wish you could bid on, but can’t because you know you’ll get outbid. Be judicious with your spending in the early stages. While you’ll have to pony up for top-tier talent, don’t overpay for someone whose stats can be matched by dozens of other players in the league. For example, don’t bid $24 for Donald Driver when there are 20 other receivers in the league who can also accrue 70 catches, 1000 yards and 6 TDs. Supply and demand is the fundamental lesson from Econ 101 you must take into account in a fantasy auction setting.

DON’T LOSE YOUR HEAD AFTER MAKING A MISTAKE – I remember one year, someone put up mediocre WR Curtis Conway for a dollar. I was sidetracked when I was flipping through my research on another player. Since I went to USC, and Curtis Conway was someone whom I had a favorable impression of from his Trojan days than in the NFL, I blurted out “one-ten” before I even realized what I had said. As soon as I heard myself say “one-ten” in reference to Curtis Conway, I felt a silence overcome the room, the hair on the back of my neck beginning to bristle, and a hot flush feeling on my forehead followed by a single bead of sweat trickling down the side of my face. I then heard the most dreaded sound you can hear at an auction after you realize you just overpaid for a player, “Out.Out.Out.Out.Out.Out.Out.Out.Out.” I looked up at the fellow USC alum who started Conway’s bidding at a dollar. Only now, he had a huge grin on his face which made me want to smash his teeth in. He took a calculated risk by putting up Conway for auction, screwed me big time when I took the bait, and we both knew it. For the next hour, not only did I struggle with the ignominy of overpaying for Curtis Conway (his value was closer to a nickel than a dollar), but I saw a ton of quality wideouts go for a fraction of what I paid for Conway. I found myself unable to get over my gaffe, and wasn’t thinking clearly enough to gauge a bargain when it finally came my way towards the end of the draft. “Nah, I’m not paying fifty cents for Chad Johnson.” Sigh….Keep a cool head, everyone makes mistakes, it’s how we learn from those mistakes that defines us as quality fantasy GM’s.

BE ‘THAT GUY’ – At almost every fantasy draft or auction, there’s always one guy who gets under people’s skin. It could be an obnoxious tool who thinks his team in better than everyone else’s, or perhaps someone who criticizes every semi-questionable move made, or it could be someone who announces injuries or other bad news about a recent acquisition (someone who drafts Steve Slaton would elicit the faux-aside comment from ‘That Guy’, “Well, hopefully he’ll still have some value even if he loses goal-line carries to Chris Brown.” Don’t be afraid to be ‘That Guy’. Given the accounting and psychology factors, people are using their heads more in fantasy auctions, and are more susceptible to getting thrown off their game than in a draft setting, where they simply pick names off their cheatsheets. You may piss your league mates off, but given that this only happens once a year, you’ll have a lot of fun in the process. Besides, people love a good villain.

START LOW – If your opening bid is too high for a player whose value is in question, you may hear the above-mentioned “Out” chorus from your competitors. Coming off James Jett’s 11-TD season a few years ago, I thought I might throw out Jett’s name for a dollar in case one of three Raider fans in the room decided they wanted him (basically, me lashing out for the Curtis Conway debacle from a year earlier). As they knew I was a Bronco fan/Raider hater, and that Jett’s 11 TDs were a total fluke since they actually watched the guy play, they decided that I should get to keep him for the inflated price. Nothing bad can come of bidding too low for a player, but you might get stuck overpaying if your competition is wise to your chicanery.

DON’T PUT UP PLAYERS YOU LIKE – If your auction is structured that league members sitting around the room rotate in deciding who goes up for auction, then it is helpful to avoid putting up your favorite players or players you want on your team. If your mates know you’re a Dolphins fan and you put up Pennington, Ronnie Brown and Davone Bess for bidding, they know they’ll be able to milk you for more money by virtue of the fact that you couldn’t wait for someone else to put those Fish up for sale. Rest assured, the studs and your favorite players and sleepers will probably get introduced before the auction is over. If nobody introduces your favorite sleepers until the end, then you can get those players much cheaper when everyone is almost out of money.

MAINTAIN YOUR POKER FACE – During an auction, it’s easy to see when a fantasy owner really wants a particular player – they become the auctioneer. “Okay, Alex just bid $25 for Stephen Jackson. Tony, what about you? $26 for Jackson? Tony?” ThIs is but one of the most common “tells” during a fantasy auction. Instead of running the auction, act calm, cool, and aloof when you’re bidding on a player you like. Almost feign disinterest, and continue to bid, especially if you know someone covets a particular player. “$32 for MJD? Hmm, I dunno, he may not hold up all year as the featured back…aw, what the hell, make it $35.” This will infuriate your bidding competition, causing much delight to everyone else.

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Sexy Hype Machine – 2009 NFL Preseason

Tuesday, August 25th, 2009

By Sam Kline, the Human Fantasy Hintbook

http://fantasyhintbook.blogspot.com/

As the 2009 NFL preseason gets underway, every football journalist wants to be the first one to break the story on someone who they feel could be the next Adrian Peterson or Jerry Rice. While reading early positive reviews of football players can be encouraging in that they can provide an early read on who to target in your fantasy football draft, it’s important to remember that these guys are facing backups and non-roster invitees while wearing shorts in the sweltering August conditions of training camp. In other words, it’s too early to identify your surprise 1600-yard, 13-TD WR or RB before Week 1 takes place. However, one of the purposes of this piece is to at least cast a light on these featured players, as well as suggest players you should avoid drafting this year for various reasons. Last but not least, we have a group of players who could provide you with good value in the middle to late rounds of your draft. Some of the players on the latter list are former members of the so-called “Sexy Hype Machine”, but didn’t quite live up to the hype their stellar past pre-seasons helped to create.

As previously mentioned, this is the list of pre-season fantasy darlings. Any of these guys could be 2009’s version of Chris Johnson, but this early into the season, nothing is certain yet. Simply keep an eye on the August performances of these individuals, and the ones that continue to shine into September will be the ones you’ll want to target, and might possibly have to reach a little early for, on draft day.

QB – Matt Ryan (Atl) – Ever since his first NFL pass that turned into a 62-yard touchdown, Ryan made quite a splash in his 2008 rookie campaign. Now that Roddy White is signed and practicing after a holdout that lingered into two-a-day practices, Ryan has two top-tier receiving options in his arsenal that would make most signal callers drool. The Falcons signed future Hall-of-Fame TE Tony Gonzalez this offseason as a free agent. Even at 33 years old, Gonzalez can still deliver premier production, as he is coming off a second consecutive 90-catch, 1000-yard season. Don’t worry too much about the loss of slot receiver Harry Douglas this season, the Falcons recently signed veterans Marty Booker and Robert Ferguson, who can provide extensive depth and experience, if not a 4.3 40-yard-dash time.

QB – Matt Schaub (Hou) – As someone who reaped the benefits of his 400-yard fantasy playoff performance against Green Bay last year, feel free to label me a card-carrying member of the Schaub for President fan club. Regardless of my affinity, Houston has once again become fertile ground for fantasy football players, hearkening back to Warren Moon’s run-and-shoot heyday of the early 1990’s. Not only is all-world WR Andre Johnson the one WR who wouldn’t draw guffaws if he were drafted ahead of Larry Fitzgerald, but RB Steve Slaton has provided enough talent and production to force defenses from playing nickel and dime defenses on first and second down. Furthermore, WR Kevin Walter made great strides in gaining Schaub’s confidence last year, as well as another quality season from undervalued TE Owen Daniels, who you can probably draft a full three rounds after Kellen Winslow. With Sage Rosenfels now in Minnesota and no longer breathing down Schaub’s neck for playing time, 2009 is the year to grab Schaub as a great QB1, or as a member of an unbeatable 2 QB-headed monster.

QB – Trent Edwards (Buf) - Unless you’ve spent the summer in Azerbaijan, you probably heard that Terrell Owens was released from the Cowboys, and as his agent Drew Rosenhaus sought greener pastures for Owens, he found that his only, er, best option was Buffalo. Now that Owens is paired with burner Lee Evans, this tandem could help create the most interesting football season in Buffalo since Thurman Thomas and Jim Kelly retired. With Edwards firmly entrenched as the starting QB coupled with question marks in the running game stemming from Marshawn Lynch’s suspension, this sequence of events could lead to a big year for Edwards. His name may not jump off your roster like a Brady or Brees, but he could be one of the better fantasy QB2s in the NFL this year if T.O. maintains his best behavior, as he traditionally has in his first year with a new team.

RB – Maurice Jones-Drew (Jax) – Finally, Fred Taylor has moved onto New England, and MJD sits atop the running back depth chart in Jacksonville. He has always been the goal line back as well as a force in PPR leagues. Well, reports out of Jaguar camp have now said that the UCLA alum has been occasionally lining up as a wideout in an effort to minimize the eventual pounding he’ll take this year. His speed, power, soft hands, and new role are what make me believe that he, not fumble-and-injury-prone Adrian Peterson, should be the #1 overall fantasy pick this year.

RB – Knowshon Moreno (Den) – For all the questionable moves that the Broncos made during the tumultuous 2009 offseason, this draft acquisition could make all the pessimism of losing a franchise QB hurt a lot less for Denver fans. Not only has he shot up the depth chart during the preseason to the point where he is expected to start the first exhibition game against the 49ers, but it looks like Moreno will be on track to start at tailback Week 1 as well. He’s young and fast with fresh legs, and he has career backup Correll Buckhalter and Raider castoff Lamont Jordan as his primary competition. Factor in the Broncos’ excellent offensive line, WRs Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal preventing teams from stacking eight in the box, and this could be an incredible rookie season for Moreno. If he’s available in the sixth round and I’m debating between a WR2 or a RB3, rest assured he’s mine.

RB – Ronnie Brown (Mia) – “It’s the sport of kings…better than diamond rings…football.” Nobody in the NFL made greater strides or saw their fantasy value skyrocket from the implementation of the “Wildcat” offense than runnin’ Ronnie (for those of you too young to remember/know, the first line of this post was an excerpt from the song from the movie Wildcats from…1986 – dang, I’m old, but I digress). In addition to being the featured back in Miami, Brown figures to be a bigger part of the Dolphins’ passing game this year. Since backup Ricky Williams is a year older and two steps slower, Brown will be counted on to move the ball both between the tackles as well as those unusual Wildcat sweeps…assuming he stays healthy.

WR – DeSean Jackson (Phi) – Jackson had some memorable highlights and lowlights in his 2008 rookie campaign, but if the amount of praise he has been given from teammates and coaches since training camp began is any indication, he figures to be an extremely valuable asset to fantasy football teams as well as the Eagles. Last season, he was considered a decent WR3 in a 12-team league, but that figures to change. Jackson is the consummate triple-threat as he had multiple rushing attempts in five games last year, and can also return punts. Based on the reports coming from Eagles camp, he should undoubtedly become the #1 passing option for Donovan McNabb, and his explosiveness could lead to DeSean doubling, or possibly tripling his TD output from his first year. Since the hype machine surrounding Jackson is no secret, you may need to reach a little and spend a 5th or 6th round pick if you want him on your squad this year.

WR – Calvin Johnson (Det) – CalJohn, take me away! Lion fans have hope this year that, in addition to their team actually making it into the win column in 2009, that Calvin Johnson may be the best receiver in football not wearing a Cardinals jersey. Johnson has three things going for him: 1) At a very fast and strong 6’5”, 235, he fits the profile as a prototypical physical receiver who can muscle for the ball even in coverage. 2) He has a new quarterback who supposedly doesn’t run out of the back of the end zone. As soon as the coaching staff comes to their senses, benches Dante Culpepper and begins playing #1 draft pick Matt Stafford, Johnson should flourish. 3) The Lions will be trailing virtually every opponent at some point in every game, so their passing attack will be their primary offense for the majority of every game. You’ll probably need to take CalJohn once Fitz and Andre Johnson are off the board in the late 2nd/early 3rd round.

WR – Percy Harvin (Min) – Harvin’s playmaking ability has drawn rave reviews, and he figures to become a dynamic part of the Viking offense this year. That said, he has three factors working against him. 1) Unretired legend Brett Favre hasn’t had sufficient preseason time to get in sync with his receivers 2) Make no mistake: this is Adrian Peterson’s team. Harvin is, at best, the third receiving option behind WRs Bernard Berrian and TE Visanthe Shiancoe (also bear in mind this is a run-first offense). Harvin will begin his NFL career as a kick returner and a slot receiver. Even though the hype machine is in full gear for Harvin, don’t get sucked in and take him too early. In fact, unless he’s your WR4/WR5, let someone else use a mid-round pick on Harvin.

TE – Dallas Clark (Ind) - With an aging Marvin Harrison gone from Indianapolis, Clark becomes Peyton Manning’s primary mid-range target, as well as the best receiving option over the middle. Since WR Anthony Gonzalez will replace Harrison at flanker, Clark will line up in the slot in three-receiver formations. As Manning and Clark get reacquainted this preseason, their timing has been described as “downright scary.” 80 catches, 900 yards and 8 TDs are very attainable for Dallas in 2009. He should be one of the first four TEs off the board, as he can put up WR2 numbers, and rarely gets shut out of the Colt passing game.

TE – Greg Olson (Chi) – The former Hurricane has turned many a head in the preseason thus far. Slated to be Jay Cutler’s favorite medium-range target, Olson has the hands and ability to excel as a TE1 this season. The Bears’ revised playbook reportedly has a slew of plays which feature Olsen as the top read, and the coaching staff has reported that this third-year player is “read to explode” after a 54-catch, 5 TD campaign in 2008. A gifted quarterback like Cutler can only help Olsen’s value, so don’t be afraid to draft him before, say, Kellen Winslow, Jeremy Shockey, or Owen Daniels.

TE – Jason Witten (Dal) – It’s no secret that Witten and Cowboy QB Tony Romo are best buddies who design plays together after hours. And it’s also no secret that former Cowboy malcontent Terrell Owens got run out of Big D. But the fact that the Cowboys don’t really have a wideout who will step up and take over as the WR1 in that offense leads me to believe that Witten is in for a monster season in 2009. Romo has proven that he will feed Witten the ball as if he were nursing a newborn when the defense allows, so don’t be shocked if Witten matches or exceeds his monster 2007 season of 96-1145-7. Personally, he’s my TE1 this year.

- by Sam Kline, aka the Human Fantasy Hint Book

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Avoid Drafting Potential Pitfalls and Landmines

Tuesday, August 25th, 2009

By Sam Kline, the Human Fantasy Hintbook

http://fantasyhintbook.blogspot.com/

QB – Joe Flacco (Bal) – Not only have the Ravens been fortifying their running game with Willis McGahee’s newfound work ethic and Ray Rice’s explosive preseason, but Joe Flacco has had the Raven coaching staff worried with an inordinate number of interceptions thrown in practice. Although WR1 Derrick Mason came out of retirement to play again in 2009, he’s a year older and slower, although still a formidable fantasy WR4. Mark Clayton tore his hamstring, denying Flacco valuable time to establish timing before the regular season begins. Given that there are about 25-30 starting quarterbacks who would look much better on your roster, you’ll want to avoid a potentially frustrating season by letting someone else draft Flacco as their QB3.

QB – Jay Cutler (Chi) – If you think Cutler will approach the numbers he put up in Denver, it is important to take three things into account. 1) The Bears have a defense far superior to the Broncos, which means Cutler will probably not be playing/passing with his team down as often. 2) The Bears’ receivers do not match up with Denver’s wideouts. Even if Bear TE Greg Olsen has the monster season people are predicting, he and Devin Hester do not hold a candle to Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal for fantasy purposes. 3) Chicago typically runs more of a ball-control offense. While they may open things up this year to allow Cutler’s arm to stretch defenses, you can expect Matt Forte to vulture at least 8-10 TD’s inside the 5 yard-line.

QB – Marc Bulger (StL) – Torry Holt, the wideout that had been Bulger’s go-to target for many years, is now in Jacksonville. Donnie Avery, the Rams’ new WR1, has been hampered by a broken foot all preseason. That leaves a dearth of receiving talent available for Bulger to pass to. Furthermore, Bulger recently suffered a fractured pinkie on his throwing hand, will probably need extra time to establish timing and chemistry with his new receivers, and may show some rust once he is healthy. The days of the “Greatest Show on Turf” get even smaller in the rear view mirror while RB Stephen Jackson continues to establish himself as the focal point of the Ram offense.

QB – Brett Favre (Min) As soon the news of #4’s return broke, I immediately thought of my friend, Bob, who has endured so so much frustration as a Viking fan of over 30 years with a deep-seated hatred of the gray-bearded wonder. Although it sounds like a great fit for Favre given that he’s familiar with the West Coast offense and has a premiere running game which will keep defenses honest, I am concerned about his surgically-repaired body holding up all year long. Even though Favre is expected to take over the starting QB job in Minnesota, he has been diagnosed with a slightly torn rotator cuff, which isn’t supposed to affect his ability to throw a football. In spite of his status at the Cal Ripken Jr.-esque Ironman of the NFL, I would bet dollars to donuts that, in spite of skyrocketing ticket sales for Sunday afternoons at the Metrodome this fall, Favre doesn’t make it through a full 16 game-season. He barely made it through 2008 as a Jet, and wasn’t well enough to play last year’s Pro Bowl. Let someone else in your draft overpay for Favre, and instead take a less-risky QB2 three to four rounds later than Favre with slightly less upside but will put up similar numbers (and fewer INT’s) like, say, Trent Edwards, or pehaps Matt Hasselbeck (if Walter Jones is healthy).

RB – Marshawn Lynch (Buf) – Not only is Lynch facing a three-game suspension from offseason criminal activity to start the season, but the Bills will be passing more this season given that they have two elite receivers in Lee Evans and newcomer Terrell Owens. As Buffalo is in a tough AFC East division, they will probably be playing from behind a great deal this season, and Lynch will not be able to rack up games where he gets 25 carries.

RB – Earnest Graham (TB) – When RB Derrick Ward signed with the Bucs, Graham’s value took an immediate hit. He is, at best, a decent RB3 who is effective at the goal-line if he stays healthy. However, the fact that Tampa Bay lacks a true QB1 leads one to believe that opposing defenses will not respect the Buccaneer passing game. Expect more eight-in-the-box formations than usual against Tampa Bay this season, and a disappointing season for Graham. Lastly, newcomer Kellen Winslow is sure to vulture 5-8 TDs from the running game this year if Winslow can avoid staph infections and testicular maladies.

RB – Thomas Jones (NYJ) – Jones had an career year during season in his first year on the Jets, but this can be partly attributed to the fact that defenses were kept honest by Brett Favre’s presence under center. In 2009, Favre is gone from East Rutherford, but rookie RB Shonn Greene has impressed early in preseason and will surely cut into Jones’ workload. Given that Jones isn’t exactly a spring chicken at 31 years old, expect more of a timeshare between Greene and Jones. Also, don’t forget about scatback Leon Washington, who is expected to play a bigger role in the offense.

RB – Lendale White (Ten) The running back formerly known as “LandWhale” lost 30 pounds this offseason after swearing off tequila for six months. Besides the fact that White has been a virtual non-factor when it comes to receptions, it remains to be seen whether this weight loss will be helpful or harmful to his power style of running. White, without a doubt, will play second fiddle in the Tennessee backfield to speedster Chris Johnson. Also, the Titans are not expected to be as dominant a team this year without defensive mayhem specialist Albert Haynesworth plugging holes in opponents’ blocking lanes. In 2008, White was brought in to games when his team had the lead and was trying to kill the clock, while Johnson was inserted when the Titans needed a big offensive play with the game in question. Since Tennessee won’t be nursing as many leads this year given the gaping hole from the absence of Haynesworth on defense, expect fewer carries for White.

WR – Eddie Royal (Den) – The downgrade at quarterback from Jay Cutler to Kyle Orton will surely dispel any hopes of a repeat 90-catch season for Royal. It is also importsnt to factor in that WR1 Brandon Marshall was acquitted of criminal charges, won’t get traded this season, and won’t face a suspension. Once “Baby T.O.” (a fitting nickname on many levels) learns the new playbook, Royal won’t get many regular season snaps as Denver’s go-to wideout. Historically, very few rookie WR’s have experienced continued success in their second year in the NFL after a monster rookie campaign, and given the switch at QB for Denver, Royal figures to be more of the rule (i.e. Terry Glenn) than the exception (i.e. Randy Moss) in 2009.

WR – Bernard Berrian (Min) – In order for Berrian to have a monster season, three things need to happen: 1) Brett Favre, with all of three weeks to prepare for Week 1, needs to play better than he did for the Jets last year. 2) Berrian, who has missed game time this preseason with a tender hamstring, needs to stay healthy the entire season, something he hasn’t done even when he was playing on natural turf in Chicago. 3) Super-hyped rookie Percy Harvin needs to establish himself as a presence in the receiving game without completely cutting into Berrian’s anticipated production. Given these three factors, you should let someone else take a flier on Berrian as their WR3/WR4.

WR – Antonio Bryant (TB) – Last season’s fantasy football playoff MVP (yep, I traded him in early November thinking Joey Galloway’s impending return would send him back to the Tampa Bay bench, and the team I traded him to won the Super Bowl…sigh) probably couldn’t tell you who his starting QB will be in 2009. While Bryant is a supreme talent, defenses can be expected to key on him more with the departure of Galloway, and while he established a great chemistry with since-departed Jeff Garcia under center last year, it would be optimistic to assume he’ll pick up right where he left off in 2008 given that he’ll miss the entire preseason as he recovers from meniscus surgery. Bryant won’t be a bust of a pick, but he may be valued too high given that he probably played over his head in the three most important weeks in the fantasy football season last year.

WR – Torry Holt (Jax) – “Touchdown” Torry Holt has had a hall-of-fame career, but his best days as a can’t-miss WR1 are long gone. Furthermore, the Jaguars’ offense has traditionally been more of the smash-mouth, ball control variety, and that figures to continue with Maurice Jones-Drew starting at tailback in 2009. As Jacksonville hasn’t boasted a WR stud since Jimmy Smith retired, you should let someone else who rode Holt to the playoffs 3-5 years ago reminisce about the old days when he played with Kurt Warner and Marshall Faulk, and take him.

TE – Kellen Winslow (TB) He left Cleveland, a sub-.500 club with constant quarterback controversies, for Tampa Bay, a slightly better squad with an even worse situation at QB. Best case scenario, his starting QB is Byron Leftwich. Hard to blame Winslow for wanting out of Cleveland, but given his extensive (and unusual) injury history and sometimes disruptive presence in the locker room, you should avoid Winslow, and grab someone like Owen Daniels or Dallas Clark with a mid-round pick this year instead.

TE – Tony Scheffler (Den) – One of the bigger teases in fantasy football, Scheffler looks absolutely awesome when he is healthy and productive. His speed, leaping and catching ability make him look more like a beefed-up wideout than a tight end. However, Kyle Orton (or, possibly, Chris Simms) is now taking snaps in Denver, and Scheffler probably won’t be catching the occasional bomb like he did when Cutler was throwing him the pigskin.

TE – Alge Crumpler (Ten) – Weighing in at 300 pounds, Crumpler will now be a blocking tight-end for the Titans, and now probably has slightly more value than retired TE Carlester Crumpler. Bo Scaife and rookie Jared Cook have established themselves as the playmaking TE’s in Tennessee, and unless it’s Chris Johnson we’re discussing, I’d just as well avoid all Titans altogether.

TE – Todd Heap (Bal) – Similarly to Scheffler, Heap has been a bit of a tease showing flashes of acrobatic catches mixed with injury-riddled seasons his entire eight-year career in Baltimore. The Ravens have a three-headed rushing attack with Ray Rice, Willis McGahee, and LeRon McClain sharing red zone scoring opportunities, Heap is expected to play a larger role in the newly installed “chip” blocking game. Given that Joe Flacco has not impressed anyone this preseason, it’s better to save yourself a, ahem, heap of frustration by finding a different tight end in 2009.

- by Sam Kline, aka the Human Fantasy Hint Book

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Talent + Time = Draft Value

Tuesday, August 25th, 2009

By Sam Kline, the Human Fantasy Hintbook

http://fantasyhintbook.blogspot.com/

We all read the same cheat sheets before we acquire our fantasy football teams, and we all discuss the same superstars we’d love to draft in the first three rounds. But just as often as these studs carry our teams throughout the season, it is important to also recognize the benefits of mid-to-late round value picks. Many fantasy football newbies get to the latter stages of their draft, start frantically browsing their lists, and can’t find a name they recognize to fill out their roster. So-called value picks fall into three categories: 1) football players that constitute a value pick were either once-hyped and fell down the depth chart but are now in an improved situation (this situation could be attributed to a change of scenery, changes in surrounding team talent, or a coaching change) , 2) were former studs whose stock dropped after an injury and are now healthy again, or 3) consistent performers tested by the arrival of a new teammate who is competing for their job. In any case, the following is a list of quality NFL footballers whose draft stock is lower during the preseason/draft time than it will be by season’s end:

In most leagues, only the can’t-miss premiere QBs (in this year’s case, Brady and Brees) will get drafted in a typical fantasy league within the first two rounds. Any quarterback besides those two shouldn’t be expected to be taken until at least the third round. It’s not that there is a shortage of QB talent in this year’s pool, but the separation of perceived value in the second tier of QBs is shorter between a Tony Romo and, say, Donovan McNabb. If healthy, Romo and McNabb should put up comparable numbers and have similar value, but McNabb might get snapped up in the fifth round while Romo gets taken in the eighth. My point is, you can probably wait a few rounds on a franchise QB and the value dropoff would be minimal and first concentrate on acquiring a Pro Bowl RB2, WR2, WR3 and TE1.

QB – Carson Palmer (QB – Cin) Although he lost his most productive receiver to free agency, Carson Palmer, who is 100% recovered from elbow trouble after playing only four games last season, is a great candidate for a bounce-back year. Palmer was fantasy royalty a few years ago, but has become an afterthought even though he is still in the prime of his career at age 29. Since the Bengals replaced All-Pro wideout TJ Houshmanzadeh with the very capable Laveraneus Coles, he won’t lose a ton of production given that WR1 Chad Ochocinco looks revitalized, and Chris Henry looks healthy and, um, not suspended for a change. Palmer’s minor ankle sprain should be fine by Week 1, and Palmer has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of “cheapie stats” (defined as yards and touchdowns accrued when the outcome of the game has already been established – i.e., when Cincinnati is down 38-14 in the fourth quarter) in the league the past few years playing for a subpar franchise like the Bengals. You could do a lot worse than use an eighth round pick for what could be a productive 4000-yard season with 20-25 TDs.

QB – Peyton Manning (Ind) – Even as a third-rounder, the elder Manning should be considered a great value pick. When Peyton Manning is your QB1, it’s easier to sleep at night because he never misses a game, and he puts up consistent monster stats. Peyton may not be this year’s trendy, sexy pick that people gush over in the preseason, but statistically speaking, he’s the Alex Rodriguez of fantasy football. Target him as a third-round pick, grab him before he falls to the fourth, and thank me in January.

QB – Matt Schaub (Hou) – While Schaub’s ADP has risen in the past month, he will still fly under the radar more so than 2008 postseason heroes Phillip Rivers and Kurt Warner. He had one of the best offensive arsenals from top to bottom, and all 11 members of the Texan offense are returning in 2009. Don’t be afraid to reach for Schaub in the fifth round, because he could be the next Drew Brees.

Most fantasy footballers have had the philosophy of drafting RBs early drilled into their heads since they started playing; that unless you’re drafting a Tom Brady or Larry Fitzgerald, you had better pick your RB1 with one of, if not both of your first two picks. If you feel you missed out on truly elite running backs, then target backs who have at least 40 catches, as this mathematically translates to an extra 6-10 TDs, depending on your scoring system. Targeting TJ-Duckett types who may only garner a handful of rushing yards but might score multiple TDs can be a risky proposition if, say, Seattle can’t crack the red zone consistently. Conversely, pass-catching RBs can score points for your team from anywhere on the football field.

RB – Leon Washington (NYJ) – Although the Jets backfield appears crowded with rookie Shonne Greene competing with incumbent starter Thomas Jones, Washington is a unique talent in the vein of Reggie Bush. He is extremely elusive, can return punts and kicks, and finds unusual ways of getting touches. Jets coach Rex Ryan has said that Washington’s role will increase this year, and you can still grab him as a dynamic RB4 in the latter rounds of your draft. If he gets between 200-300 touches and stays healthy, expect Leon’s best statistical season to date. The Jets aren’t paying him a reported $4-5 million per year so he can serve as a decoy, and he’ll be needed as a safety valve for the young Jet QBs when they’re facing a heavy pass rush. If you saw Washington in the preseason game against the Ravens, he was used in a variety of ways, including running between the tackles, and I see big things for the little guy this season.

RB – Brandon Jacobs (NYG) – Jacobs has proven he can be a touchdown machine, has shown improved hands in training camp, and the Giants figure to base more of its offensive attack around the run after lost Pro Bowl wideout Plaxico Burress. Ahmad Bradshaw will take most of the load left by Derrick Ward, but he’ll also keep Jacobs fresh. As Jacobs has averaged only 211 carries each of the last two seasons, he still has low miles on the engine. If he duplicates his 15 TD season with more receptions than a year ago, he becomes a mid-first round pick. You can probably get him in the early-to-mid second round this year.

RB – LaDainian Tomlinson (SD) – LaDainian may not quite be at the peak of his prime anymore, but he’s still a first-round pick capable of 1700 combined yards, 14 TD, and 50 catches. This could be a huge year for San Diego, as they are one of the most balanced teams in football. As Phillip Rivers has established himself and the Charger passing game, opposing defenses won’t key on LT like they did earlier in his career. If, for any reason, Tomlinson slips out of the first round, grab him, as he is 100% healthy.

RB – Reggie Bush (NO) – After his reputation took a beating when people realized he wasn’t going to be the same NFL wunderkind that he was in college, many people have written Bush off. When the Saints’ offense isn’t clicking at certain times, QB Drew Brees tends to just dump the ball to Bush, and watch him create yards with his explosive burst and dynamic ability. He won’t get 300 carries like other second round picks, but he can score 10 TDs with 80 catches and over 1000 combined yards if he plays a Westbrook-esque full season (in other words, fully expect him to miss 1-2 games). If Bush is available in the latter stages of the fourth round, grab him, as he seems to be fully recovered from offseason knee surgery.

Wide receiver is probably the deepest position of available talent in fantasy football. While there is sometimes only one QB, RB or TE worth targeting on one NFL team, some teams like the Saints, Broncos, Cardinals or Texans have as many as three wideouts one would be proud to have on their roster. If there is one position you can wait on to fill out the rest of your slots at that particular position, it’s wide receiver. You probably couldn’t find a 4000-yard passer or a 1200-yard tailback in the eleventh round of a typical fantasy draft, but you can probably choose from at least a half-dozen 70 reception, 1000-yard receivers at that stage. Don’t get me wrong: the Fitzgeralds, Megatrons, Andre Johnsons will be gone in the first three rounds because they are truly elite and can carry your team, but you’d be surprised at the surfeit of good-to-very-good talent at wideout that is available towards the end of your draft.

WR – Donnie Avery (StL) – Donnie Football’s ADP stock has taken a hit with a stress-fracture in his left foot. His injury may even keep him out of Week 1, which has rendered him a mere afterthought in many fantasy drafts. Recent reports suggest Avery has made a speedy recovery, and will likely be Marc Bulger’s #1 target when the Rams begin the regular season. Bulger and Avery were developing a solid rapport last year before an exhausted Avery hit the proverbial “rookie wall.” Factor in that the Rams are a fairly awful team outside of Stephen Jackson, you can expect a heap of cheapie stats when they’re losing by multiple scores in the second half of most of their games in 2009. If Avery is still available at the end of your draft, he could be a solid WR4 as the season gets underway.

WR – Jerricho Cotchery (NYJ) – With Laveranues Coles gone to Cincinnati, Cotchery becomes the unquestioned top receiving option in the Jets’ passing game. Regardless of who wins the starting QB job for the Jets, Cotchery is a very talented possession receiver with a penchant for acrobatic catches and making clutch plays. His 2008 numbers were down, which can be attributed to newcomer Brett Favre’s learning the Jets’ playbook on the fly. But given that the 2009 starting QB has had more offseason and preseason time to prepare, Cotchery should be properly synced up with his signal caller come Week 1.

WR – Hines Ward (Pit) – Your fellow league mates will probably still have the image of Santonio Holmes’ Super Bowl-winning catch fresh in their minds, and will select Holmes six rounds earlier than Ward. But Hines, who has been a consistent part of the Pittsburgh passing game for most of his entire 10-year career, has declared himself 100% from lingering shoulder and knee injuries headed into this season. He should be happy after signing a $22-million contract, and could be in for another 70-80 catch, 8 TD season as a nice value pick after the tenth or eleventh round.

WR – Donald Driver (GB) – Driver has been a paradigm of consistency in fantasy football the last several years. Since 2002, he has missed only two games, and as he has garnered 1000 receiving yards each year since 2004,he is one of the most reliable possession receivers in the league. Aaron Rogers has proven to be the real deal as Brett Favre’s successor in Titletown, fellow WR Greg Jennings will draw opposing teams’ top cornerback, and Driver should continue to flourish in Green Bay’s West Coast Offense with plenty of short-to-medium passes coming his way. Lastly, you can expect the motivated Driver to play 2009 with a heavy heart as he continues to mourn Alcorn State teammate Steve McNair’s offseason murder.

Tight ends are considered a tertiary concern to most fantasy owners. Tight end is also a position where eighth-round selections can yield production about equal to, if not more than, a “can’t miss” fourth-rounder. If you don’t believe me, just ask anyone who used a third-round pick on Antonio Gates, who accrued a disappointing 60 catches for 704 yards last year. Then look at the number of tight ends who out-performed Gates, in spite of the fact that Gates played all 16 regular season games.

TE – Chris Cooley (Was) – Cooley’s name is rarely mentioned when fans and experts discuss NFL’s elite tight ends. Every fantasy footballer wants a Jason Witten, Antonio Gates, or a Tony Gonzalez as their starting TE, but acquiring a name like one of the aforementioned three will probably cost as much as a third-round pick in some drafts. Coming off a season in which Cooley scored one measly touchdown, Redskins coach Jim Zorn has reportedly promised Cooley that the tight end will find the end zone “at least” six times. The ‘Skins top wideout, Santana Moss is, for the most part, a deep threat, and the lack of a true WR2 in Washington means that Cooley will be QB Jason Campbell’s primary target in the medium-range passing game. Cooley has never missed a game, has shown admirable consistency with flashes of greatness at times during his career, and is still in his prime at 27 years old. Target Cooley around the eighth round after the so-called “elite” TEs are gone.

TE – John Carlson (Sea) – Carlson first appeared on most fantasy radars when he exploded for a 6-catch, 105-yard game last Thanksgiving against the Cowboys. He has demonstrated great catching abilities as well as a profound understanding of the pro game at such a young age, that he can expect more playing time this year, and probably more production. In spite of TJ Houshmanzadeh’s arrival, Seahawk offensive coordinator Greg Knapp runs an offense that heavily involves tight ends, so expect more good things from Carlson in his second season in Seattle.

TE – Zach Miller (Oak) – The Raiders are still, at best, a mediocre team, but given their depth issues at wide receiver coupled with Miller’s productive 56-catch, 778-yard rookie season, expect similar numbers with a few more TDs sprinkled in. The Raider coaching staff could line up Miller in the slot given the lack of available talent at wideout. If Oakland QB1 JaMarcus Russell falters or gets injured, Jeff Garcia would serve as a favorable passer who would benefit Miller and his fantasy owners.

TE – Jeremy Shockey (NO) – Remember him? He’s healthy, he’s established great timing with QB Drew Brees, he’s having a remarkable preseason, he’s out of the Saints’ coaching doghouse, and he’ll have plenty of red zone scoring opportunities in his second season on the offensive juggernaut Saints. Even in an injury-riddled 2008, he still managed 50 catches, and could approach loftier totals akin to his salad days in New York if he can stay off the injury report in 2009.

- by Sam Kline, aka the Human Fantasy Hint Book

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Fantasy Football Live Online Draft: Five Do’s and Don’ts

Tuesday, August 25th, 2009

By Sam Kline, the Human Fantasy Hintbook

http://fantasyhintbook.blogspot.com/

Draft day is a sacred time in any fantasy football aficionado’s life, a time when every member of a fantasy league has a shot at drafting the greatest team in the history of Rotisserie. We all have our pre-draft rituals as well as our idiosyncrasies as far as where we draft and with whom we draft. As we are all different with unique work habits, it is important to be in an environment where you are comfortable and can focus on only the draft at hand:

DO’S:

1. Make sure you have a reliable broadband connection – If you’re still stuck in 1996 and have a dial-up Internet connection, either find a public or school library and use one of their machines equipped with broadband to avoid possible interruption of your Internet connection, or go to a friend/family member’s house who is not in your league. An empty office at work on Saturday is an ideal environment for Draft Day. Since live drafts are conducted in real time, you want to make sure the machine you’re working on is keeping pace with your draft. Business center stores (e.g. Kinko’s) also have available computers, but check the prices before you hop on a Kinko’s computer for three hours, as you may end up forfeiting all your future winnings on workstation usage fees before the season even starts!

2. Eliminate potential distractions – You may want to catch some baseball on TV between your draft picks or call your girlfriend back. Or, you may want to download a song while you’re waiting for your pick to come around. Solution: baseball boxscores are available after the game, so turn off the TV. If your girlfriend can’t wait two hours for you to call her back, send her a text message or email before the draft saying you’ll talk to her in a couple hours. Itunes isn’t going anywhere, so feel free to hold off on your impulsive need to shop for music until after the last round. In fact, close all websites that don’t pertain to your draft, and keep no more than 2-3 browser windows open at once (including your draft room). If your computer’s reliability is questionable, reboot your computer before your draft so the chance of it freezing / crashing during the draft is minimized. You don’t want any problems or distractions during one of the most important three-hour stretches of the year.

3. Mind the Queue – Unfortunately, computer crashes during a live draft are more common than any of us would like to admit. To prevent Murphy’s Law from taking effect, make sure you have at least two players you would consider taking at that stage in the draft queued up, and ready to select. If, by some chance, you lose track of time and your clock expires or, worse yet, your computer crashes before you make your pick, at least you have some say as far as who gets selected as opposed to the pre-installed rankings dictating whom you pick. Sometimes, these website-generated pre-rankings fail to take the latest season-ending injuries to a starter into account. Back in 2003, Chad Pennington broke his hand in a pre-season game, and the draft website’s pre-draft rankings still had Pennington ranked as if he were healthy. After nine rounds with plenty of healthy QBs to choose from, Pennington was inadvertently selected when someone got accidentally kicked off the online draft room. This occurrence upset the victim so much, that he lost focus and made a slew of questionable picks the rest of the draft due to his lingering rage. Don’t be that guy.

4. Pre-ranking your players is overkill – As motivated as we all are in preparing for draft day, it is optimistic to think that we will spend countless hours shuffling players up and down your pre-rankings of 300-400 players. By the time your draft is completed, it won’t matter that you moved DeAngelo Williams ahead of Brandon Jacobs because they’ll both be gone within the first two rounds, anyway. Instead, find the players you DON’T want under any circumstances, and move whoever is injured, benched, or suspended for the year ALL THE WAY DOWN to the end of your pre-rankings beneath Keary Colbert and Bruce Gradkowski. This way, if your computer freezes or crashes during the live draft, there will be virtually no chance you’ll get stuck with a fantasy stiff for a draft pick.

5. Make sure your laptop battery is fully charged – You should have a power supply plugged into an electrical outlet during your draft. However, if you discover you absolutely must be mobile during your draft, don’t run out of battery power. Trust me, you will experience no sympathy from your league mates if this happens.

DONT’S:

1. Don’t drink near your computer – Keep your beverages on a separate table from your computer. I’m sure you’re the least clumsiest person in the world, but you don’t want anything like spilled milk or beer ruining the most important stretch of your football season.

2. Don’t just fill out a starting lineup first – This means, don’t take your starting kicker before your third RB. As you probably know, kickers should be saved for your last round. If you want a RB3 that will shine on your roster, he should be selected by the sixth or seventh round (sometimes before your WR2 or TE1). If you want a QB3 that’s more than just an injury stopgap, you should pick that signal caller by the 12th round. Bye weeks and injuries will test the depth of your entire fantasy football squad, so, in many cases, your backups can be almost as important as your starters.

3. Don’t get too chatty online – Yes, there is a chat feature in your draft room, but unless you’re posting singular jabs about how someone just used their third-round pick on an imprisoned wideout that shot himself, don’t get engaged in extensive conversations during your online draft. First, you’ll get distracted by your opponents, which is typically their objective in stirring the pot. Second, you may accidentally reveal some of your strategy. If you’re in a league with your friends, they may know you well enough to read between the lines of your chat, and then may upstage you with a pick you had queued. If you haven’t spoken to various league mates since last January, wait until after the draft to catch up on old times.

4. Don’t bother crossing out players on your personal cheat sheet – Your computer’s online draftboard will keep track of which talent has been taken. By the middle rounds, you’ll be spending more time cross-referencing who’s gone from the board vs who is still available on your manual cheat sheet than deciding who your next pick will be.

5. Don’t overwork your computer – This is in conjunction with #2 on the list of “Do’s.” Close the Facebook and the Twitter, close your email, even close your online radio/Itunes and turn a boombox or clock/radio on instead if you must have music on during your draft. Any bandwidth taken away from your draft room could cause potential problems for your computer’s memory, causing you to get accidentally kicked out of your draft room and autodraft you Tarvaris Jackson, causing four months of spiteful bitterness.

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Shaun Hill Wins 49ers QB Gig

Monday, August 24th, 2009

By Andrew Garda

Finally the San Francisco 49ers have named their starting quarterback and, as expected at least by me, Shaun Hill will get the nod.

It’s unfortunate they waited so long as Hill now has just a few weeks before the season to work on his final timing and plays with the ‘A’ team, but hopefully that will be enough.

Hill’s leadership and overall poise were pointed to as reasons for his ascendancy to the top spot. Alex Smith’s currently injured thumb probably pushed the decision forward as well, but again this was a move the staff was rumored to have liked a long, long time ago.

Hill played well in 2008 once he emerged from the chaos of the last days of the Mike Nolan regime and solid if not spectacular football.

Hill lacks the arm that Alex Smith has, however he isn’t quite as squirrely in the pocket under pressure and is accurate in the short game.

He certainly looked at tight end Vernon Davis often in the first preseason games and I expect Davis to continue to be a beneficiary of Hill’s largess. As I have said before, this could be a big year for Vernon Davis.

Josh Morgan might not see the amount of deep balls he would have had Smith won the job, but the Niners need to stretch the field and Morgan is all they have. He has to show last season wasn’t a fluke and I expect him to do a lot with his opportunities.

Isaac Bruce will probably see a good amount of targets – Hill looked to him often once he was in the drivers seat. While I think Morgan will see a ton of work now that he’s healthy (unlike last year), Bruce’s presence and reliability cannot be denied.

Overall, this was a move I – and many others – expected to happen at some point. Alex Smith has not been able to gain enough momentum at any point in his career to warrant much optimism and that held true again this year.

In my opinion, neither quarterback will be the future of this franchise – perhaps Nate Davis has a chance at that. But Hill is a good enough QB to shepherd the 49ers through the NFC West this season

This article also featured on ThunderingBlurb.com

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Twitter Roundtable Vol. 4 The QBs Strike Back

Monday, August 24th, 2009

Welcome to another edition of the Twitter Roundtable. As always, our group of Fantasy Experts discuss a topic of fantasy relevance to your league and season.

Today, we talk about Quarterbacks.

While many an owner is thinking about grabbing QB early, still others wait for their signal-caller. Which guy currently projected outside these twelve Quarterbacks has the best shot at making the top 8? Why?

Brady, Tom – NE
Brees, Drew – NO
Manning, Peyton – IND
McNabb, Donovan – PHI
Warner, Kurt – ARI
Rivers, Philip – SD
Rodgers, Aaron – GB
Palmer, Carson – CIN
Schaub, Matt – HOU
Romo, Tony – DAL
Cutler, Jay – CHI
Garrard, David – JAX
Orton, Kyle – DEN

Jared Feree – What’s Your Fantasy Podcast
Based on THAT list, two guys step out to me.

1) Matt Hasselbeck – Hasselbeck, the last time he was healthy, finished top ten and he is gaining a great receiver in Houshmandzadeh. He does still play in one of the weaker conferences in the NFC West. I also think Carlson is a nice weapon and Deion Branch, when healthy, is a nice target as well. I wouldn’t want to place any bets on Hassebeck finishing top 10, but wouldn’t be surprised if he wound up there.

2) Matt Ryan – I like him to be close to top 10 and would prefer him over a guy like Garrard. Roddy White is solid, Turner is solid, and the addition of Tony Gonzalez could add a few redzone passing TD’s. While his overall numbers weren’t that impressive last season, he did finish top 15 as a rookie.

HONORABLE MENTION:
Brett Favre for obvious reasons, but I think he will move very close to the top 12 once he is in camp.

Matt Schauf – RapidDraft.com
From what I’ve seen, Matt Ryan is far more often considered among the top 12 than Orton or Garrard. I agree that Hasselbeck doesn’t have a long trip to get back into the top 12, although I also don’t trust him to make it through a full schedule. I really like Trent Edwards, though his success (or failure) will depend on how quickly a whole new line can jell. I’m not betting on him as a starter right away, but I’ll absolutely take a shot on him as a backup/spot starter with upside. Matt Cassel got sacked more than any other passer in the league last year and he still managed to have a pretty nice season.

Terrell Owens was awesome in his first seasons with Philly and Dallas (despite some new kid taking over at QB during that year with the Cowboys), and he seems to be saying and doing all the right things again in Buffalo.

Another really late sleeper is Jason Campbell, who has a more experienced line and is, by all accounts, determined to finally put it all together this year. He’s done a pretty good job avoiding interceptions as a starter overall, so the big question will be whether he has enough at receiver.

Ginny Loveless – Footballdiehards.com
With Falcon’s bruuuuutal schedule, there’s no way I’d put Matt Ryan on the list.

HHmmmm…. Matt Hasselbeck and Trent Edwards

MH: In the past, Hasselbeck has been a proven fantasy starter. So, knowing he can be in that role eases the assumption that he can do it again. Last year was extremely subpar for him due not only to the injuries to his receivers, but his own injury which caused him to miss half the season. Hasselbeck has said himself that he is now completely recovered from his back woes and even Coach More is happy with his progress, so that’s always good to hear.

Doing some quick math here, had he played all 16 games –all things being equal – he would have ended the season with about 2850 yards and 11 touchdowns. While that’s pretty middle-of-the-pack stats, he should thrive this year as he gets to air it out to TJ Houshmandzadeh and John Carlson. Not to mention that if Nate Burleson and Deion Branch can stay healthy, things will be even easier for the 10-year vet.

TE: From what I’ve seen and read, Trent Edwards is a great decision maker who understands the offense and we should see an overall improvement of him at this position as he enters his third year. But, it’s the addition of Terrell Owens to his receiving crew that makes me include him here. Lee Evans is great to have on the other side of the field, too. If Marshawn Lynch and the Bills’ running game keep steady, that should make things easier for him as well.

Between Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson…..whoever wins that job I would add to the list… There’s talent in Cleveland with Braylon Edwards and Brian Robiskie. Quinn is one more year into being more mature and I think he can really start something good this year with Edwards. Braylon’s flub last year was a fluke and he will rebound. :::crossfingers:::

Parag Gheewala – Mockumentary
I like the Matt Hasslebeck pick, but I’ll stick my neck out and go with Ben Roethlisberger. I have a feeling that Ben will have solid but unspectacular season. His owners will be constantly looking for an upgrade because he’ll never quite be a difference maker each week. Not many will try to trade for him because he won’t seem like an upgrade. But at the end of the season, everyone will be shocked to see that Ben’s made it into the top 8 (barely). Some of the better QBs will get hurt (Kurt Warner, I’m looking at you) and some will sit because their teams have clinched the playoffs. The result is that one of the best NFL QBs will put together a top 8 fantasy football season. Since his ADP is outside of the top 12, he sounds like a nice backup QB to grab.

Matt Schauf – RapidDraft.com
I’m definitely not a Braylon Edwards believer. I think that the numbers he has put up with various quarterbacks over four seasons indicate that he’s much closer to a 70-catch, 7-touchdown type of player at best than the blowed-up 2007 version. If he were a true, sure-fire No. 1 wideout, I have to think he either would have snapped out of the funk at some point last season or found the Giants willing to give up Steve Smith to bring him aboard this winter.

Roethlisberger is another player that I never end up drafting, because he has clearly shown that he can’t be counted on for big numbers. I’d like to think that the apparent emergence of Santonio Holmes will set Ben up to finally reach 20 TD passes for the second time in his career this year, but there was no good reason for him not to do so last year.

The potential for distraction in this new lawsuit that might involve sexual assault doesn’t help things either.

Josh Torrey – FantasyDC.com
I don’t believe Holmes “playoff” emergence will amount to much this season. He is a good player, but I don’t think he’ll be consistent enough to counter Ben’s lack of consistency.

That said, Trent Edwards & Matt Hasselback are my two nominations. I’ve written an article on Edwards (that received due heat) trying to show that big numbers from him are not that far fetched. The guy didn’t play in two games last year as was crazy efficient in his 2nd Year. I obviously expect that efficiency to go down as he tosses the ball deep more often but he just got one of the best redzone WRs in the NFL. His TDs should be on the rise.

Ginny Loveless – Footballdiehards.com

Some thoughts on Parag’s Big Ben take:

Parag: I’ll stick my neck out and go with Ben Roethlisberger.
Me: Big Ben has never been a relevant/dependable fantasy option.
Parag: His owners will be constantly looking for an upgrade.

Me: Agreed.

Parag: He’ll never quite be a difference maker each week.

Me:Agreed.
Parag: Not many will try to trade for him because he won’t seem like an upgrade.

Me: Agreed.
Parag: But at the end of the season, everyone will be shocked to see that Ben’s made it into the top 8. Some of the better QBs will get hurt and some will sit because their teams have clinched the playoffs.

Me: If he gets into the top 8 based on injuries and starters sitting then he has not achieved anything. It will still be the same subpar fantasy performance we expect from Big Ben, but he is moving up in the ranks out of default. I’ll pass.

Matt Schauf – RapidDrafts.com
From the looks of things, Holmes’ Super Bowl performance has led to him rededicating this off-season. He’s added some bulk and just generally seems more focused on proving himself every time I see him quoted. I’m not penciling him in as a fantasy No. 1, but I do think it’s possible he finally reaches that level.

Andrew Garda – ThunderingBlurb.com
Actually Big Ben is reliable from the standpoint of, he doesn’t lose you matchups – though he won’t win you championships.

But I’d be shocked if he hit the top 10.

Echoing thoughts here: I think Hasselbeck and Edwards have shots, though Hass has to stay healthy (and his Oline needs to hang on one more year) and Edwards has to overcome three new starters on the line.

I’m going to throw a different wrinkle in there – Chad Pennington.

Granted this will be a VERY tough climb – the schedule he has is abusive and just looking at the AFC East alone shows teams that managed to get better than they were last year. And last year they didn’t exactly suck.

Still, Pennington had a great season in 2008 and not much changed offensively for the Phins this off-season. Ginn has a year more experience, the team picked up some rookie help, Ronnie Brown looks healthy and ready to go and Penny is coming off a season where he finished top 10 in many leagues.

The Wildcat didn’t hurt Pennington and won’t this year – and Pat White hasn’t done a thing to impact the QB position yet (though White is a guy who always looks worse in practice than in games).

Aside from the tough schedule Pennington needs to: stay healthy (rare), stay accurate (usually a strength) and stay upright (Dolphins were ranked 23rd in sacks allowing only 26). The Dolphins were a top 10 passing offense in 2008 (according to NFL.com) – if that holds it gives Pennington (the main man there) a strong chance to do the same in 2009.

If you grab him as part of a QBBC, you limit risk and still have the upside for a nice season.

Jim Day – FantasyFootballWhiz.com
I am going to go outside the box here and say Shaun Hill. Yes I said Shaun Hill, STOP LAUGHING.

I know that Alex Smith was getting talked up out of OTA’s but he will NOT beat out Hill to start. Okay that established, let’s take a closer look at Hill.

In the last 8 games of 2008 (his starts) he finished 8th in QB scoring, beating out Warner, Big Ben, McNabb, Ryan, and most definitely Brett Favre. He has a completion percentage of 64% in his 10 career starts. He averages 250 yds per start and has 18 Tds versus only 9 interceptions over that same period.

Now he has a 2nd year receiver in Josh Morgan who many feel is in a good position to break out. Morgan has good size and speed and should improve on his 2008 numbers.

He also has a great veteran in Isaac Bruce who had 61 receptions for 835 yards and 7 TDs in 2008. Many feel he won’t put up those numbers in 2009, but it is hard to count him out.

Now add in a receiver many felt was the best receiver, if not the best impact player, in this year’s draft, Michael Crabtree. Crabtree had over 3000 yards and 41 TDs in just two years in a high powered Texas Tech offense. He has good size, great hands and very good speed. He is not your ordinary rookie and should give Hill a very nice red zone option.

Look for Hill to top 3000 yards and be very close to 25 TDs.

Ginny Loveless – FootballDiehards.com
RE: Jim – I am going to go outside the box here and say Shaun Hill. Yes I said Shaun Hill, STOP LAUGHING.

That’s it. I want out of these Roundtable shenanigans.

Josh Torrey – FantasyDC.com

Matt Schauf said: From the looks of things, Holmes’ Super Bowl performance has led to him rededicating this off-season. He’s added some bulk and just generally seems more focused on proving himself every time I see him quoted. I’m not penciling him in as a fantasy No. 1, but I do think it’s possible he finally reaches that level.

Me: I know this is a QB thread but I have to respond to this, lol.

Holmes spent a lot of time this last off-season adding strength too. He went through almost all practices in Training Camp with weighted gloves. I really felt it made a difference in terms of him snatching balls from the air. But my point was this, I’m not slighting Holmes. I’m just saying he wouldn’t be good enough to change how Ben plays football. To make Ben consistent, you’re going to need to sit him in the pocket & ask him to not take wild chances….that will lead to losing games. Ben will be erratic, he’ll have horrific fantasy games and you’ll regret drafting him when you’re playing against Brees, Brady or Manning.

All this btw? I’m a huge Steelers fan and own Big Ben as my Dynasty QB in a 16 Team League. So this is no anti-Ben bias.

Steve Wyremski – retiredrookie.com
Sign me up for Matt Ryan and Trent Edwards to replace Orton.

Matt Ryan
I realize that he’s got a nasty schedule (or so it seems), but it’s very tough to give that a ton of weight at this point given the parity in the NFL and the fluctuation of top teams year after year. Tony Gonzalez should help out big time freeing up the receivers and with a year under his belt he should be golden. Come on…! I’m a BC fan!

Trent Edwards
This is pretty simple for me taking a look at a simple fact. Last year’s squad was Lee Evans, Josh Reed and Robert Royal. Now, we’re looking at TO, Lee Evans and Shawn Nelson. Talk about night and day. Edwards is primed for a breakout season and the team should largely benefit from the presence of TO during his honeymoon season. Besides, TO looks like his finally matured from watching his show on VH1. Really.

And that’s it for today’s discussion – thanks to everyone for taking part and for reading.

To find out more about the folks involved, please take a moment to read below:

Matt Schauf (@mschauf63) You can now find his work as the lead football writer for PFS and SportsBuff.com or at RapidDraft.com, where he also provides the strategy for the “Hollywood” character in the industry’s first single-player fantasy football game. His IDP writing can also be found at SportingNews.com and in preview magazines for Sporting News, Rotoworld and Football Diehards.

Joshua Torrey (@jmtorrey) is a contributor to FantasyDC.com & is a fan of not just football but football strategy. Joshua enjoys breaking down game tape and team schemes to predict long term fantasy success.

Andrew Garda (@ThunderingBlurb) writes for a myriad of sites including FantasyPros911.com, BleacherReport.com and his own site, ThunderingBlurb.com. He also hosts his own weekly show The Thundering Blurb Football Show every Wednesday (10pm EST) on BlogTalkRadio.com.

Steve Wyremski’s (@retiredrookie) primary focus is to reach out to NFL and NCAA players for interviews in an effort to bring the players closer to fans. Dynasty leagues are a huge focus of his, but general football strategy is his love.

Parag Gheewala (@vote4parag) is an average guy with a day job who loves fantasy football and is also the mastermind behind Mockumentary, which started as his Twitter commentary on the first Twitter Fantasy Football Mock Draft.

Jim Day (@Fantasytaz) has been writing for FF sites since 2000 when he started with Xpertsports.com. Jim started Fantasy Football Whiz in 2007 just as a place to have some fun and conversation with fellow league mates and any other fantasy fanatic that wanted to talk FF.

Jared Ferree (@WYFShow ) hosts the “What’s Your Fantasy” radio show/podcast on Blogtalkradio’s Fantasy Sports Channel with Raymond Summerlin. He is also a frequent contributor to www.lindyssports.com with both fantasy player rankings and general fantasy football articles.

Ginny Loveless (@GBGinny) is a staff writer at Football Diehards and is part of the weekly fantasy football recap crew. This beer-drinking, brat-eating, cheesehead will give you her best tip at being successful in fantasy football: numbers don’t lie. Stick with the facts and you’ll do alright. However . . . a little luck never hurts.

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Tags: Aaron Rodgers, Carson Palmer, David Garrard, Donovan McNabb, Drew Brees, fantasy football, fantasy sports channel, Jay Cutler, Kurt Warner, Matt Schaub, NFL, Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, Tom Brady, Tony Romo
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The Fantasy Sports Channel

Archive for August, 2009

Taz’s Almost Buried But Not Dead Sleepers

Taz’s DEEP 6 Sleepers

Taz’s Pseudo Sleepers

Your First Fantasy Football Auction

Sexy Hype Machine – 2009 NFL Preseason

Avoid Drafting Potential Pitfalls and Landmines

Talent + Time = Draft Value

Fantasy Football Live Online Draft: Five Do’s and Don’ts

Shaun Hill Wins 49ers QB Gig

Twitter Roundtable Vol. 4 The QBs Strike Back

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